Company Reports

Orange upgraded EBITDAaL guidance for the second time this year; it is now expecting more than 4% adjusted EBITDAaL growth in 2026 compared with more than 3% previously. We are pleased with overall top-line growth and the discipline Orange is showing on its cost base.

Orange operates in many countries worldwide, but its strongest region is France, where it enjoys a comfortable position as the incumbent operator and has a good relationship with the French government, which owns around 20% of the company. In France, Orange tries to defend its market share from competitors, especially Iliad, which is the most aggressive. Orange normally offsets slight customer losses with low-single-digit price increases, maintaining revenue flattish. Orange has been the main installer of fiber-optic cables in France, which results in better unit economics for the company in the long term, as the payment scheme set by French regulators favors players that took more risks in the buildout phase. French broadband prices have held up well in 2024 and 2025, while the mobile side faces more pressure as peer SFR has increased promotional activity.

Orange, Bouygues, and Iliad signed the memorandum of understanding to collectively acquire SFR for EUR 20.35 billion. The asset split would be 27% for Orange, 42% for Bouygues, and 31% for Iliad.

Orange upgraded its 2026 EBITDA after leases guidance to more than 3% growth from 3% growth previously. Year-on-year revenue growth of 12.7% in Africa and 2.3% growth in France were the main drivers.

Orange, Iliad, and Bouygues Telecom have sent a new offer valuing most of Altice France’s assets at EUR 20.35 billion. This is 20% higher than the EUR 17 billion offer made in October 2025. The asset split would be the same as in the original offer, with Orange receiving 27% and Bouygues 42%.

Orange unveiled its 2028 medium-term plan, which aims for a 3% EBITDA after leases CAGR until 2028 and reaching a EUR 0.85 dividend floor payable in 2029, which would also represent a 3% compound annual growth rate.

Orange operates in many countries worldwide, but its strongest region is France, where it enjoys a comfortable position as the incumbent operator and has a good relationship with the French government, which owns around 20% of the company. In France, Orange tries to defend its market share from competitors, especially Iliad, which is the most aggressive. Orange normally offsets slight customer losses with low-single-digit price increases, maintaining revenue flattish. Orange has been the main installer of fiber-optic cables in France, which results in better unit economics for the company in the long term, as the payment scheme set by French regulators favors players that took more risks in the buildout phase. French broadband prices have held up well in 2024 and 2025, while the mobile side faces more pressure as peer SFR has increased promotional activity.

Orange’s management raised EBITDAaL growth guidance for the second time this year, and now expects 3.5% growth in 2025, up from the 3.0% target set in the summer. This wasn't unexpected, given year-to-date growth in the second quarter was already well above the previous 3% target.

Orange, Iliad, and Bouygues submitted a EUR 17 billion offer for most of Altice France’s assets in an attempt to consolidate the French telecom market. The offer was swiftly rejected by Patrick Drahi, Altice's main shareholder.

Orange operates in several countries, but its strongest region is France, where it enjoys a comfortable position as the incumbent operator and has good relationships with the government, which owns 23% of the company. In France, Orange tries to defend its market share from competitors, especially the Iliad, which is the most aggressive. Orange normally offsets slight customer losses with low-single-digit price increases, maintaining revenue flattish. Orange has been the main installer of fiber-optic cables in France, which results in better unit economics for the company in the long term, as the payment scheme set by French regulators favors players that took more risks in the buildout phase. French broadband prices are holding up relatively well so far in 2025, while there is more pressure on the mobile side as peer SFR has increased promotional activity.

We liked Orange’s second-quarter results, which delivered 4.2% organic year-on-year EBITDAaL growth, higher than last quarter’s 3.2%. Middle East and Africa was again the main growth driver, delivering 12.8% EBITDAL year-on-year growth in the first half.

Orange operates in several countries, but its strongest region is France, where it enjoys a comfortable position as the incumbent operator and has good relationships with the government, which owns 23% of the company. Orange's strategy in France is simple: Try to defend market share from competitors, especially the Iliad, which is the most aggressive. Orange normally offsets slight customer losses with low-single-digit price increases, maintaining revenue flattish. Orange has been the main installer of fiber-optic cables in France, which results in better unit economics for the company in the long term as the payment scheme set by French regulators favors players that took more risks in the buildout phase. Orange has maintained a relatively stable market share in the mobile segment for the past decade but with shrinking average revenue per user caused by Iliad’s entrance, which has pruned the company’s revenue over time. Over the past decade, Orange has maintained its EBITDA margins in France, offsetting low revenue growth with cost reductions. We expect this strategy to continue in the future.

Orange began 2025 on a strong note, with EBITDAaL up 3.2% year on year to EUR 2.48 billion. Results are in line with company-compiled consensus and put Orange on the right track to meet its 2025 guidance of 3% EBITDAaL growth.

Orange has been overdelivering on its promises over the past 24 months, and the fourth quarter was no exception. EBITDAaL grew 3.2% in the quarter, bringing the full-year increase to 2.7%, in line with the firm’s ambition of achieving low-single-digit growth. For 2025, Orange raised its EBITDAaL guidance from low-single-digit growth to around 3%, which we view favorably. Orange also reported organic free cash flow of EUR 3.4 billion, surpassing its EUR 3.3 billion target, while increasing its 2025 guidance to more than EUR 3.6 billion, up from the previous EUR 3.5 billion. We are maintaining our EUR 13.40 fair value estimate and no-moat rating.

Orange operates in several countries, but its strongest region is France, where it enjoys a comfortable position as the incumbent operator and has good relationships with the government, which owns 23% of the company. Orange's strategy in France is simple: Try to defend market share from competitors, especially the Iliad, which is the most aggressive. Orange normally offsets slight customer losses with low-single-digit price increases, maintaining revenue flattish. Orange has been the main installer of fiber-optic cables in France, which results in better unit economics for the company in the long term as the payment scheme set by French regulators favors players that took more risks in the buildout phase. Orange has maintained a relatively stable market share in the mobile segment for the past decade but with shrinking average revenue per user caused by Iliad’s entrance, which has pruned the company’s revenue over time. Over the past decade, Orange has maintained its EBITDA margins in France, offsetting low revenue growth with cost reductions. We expect this strategy to continue in the future.

No-moat Orange reported third-quarter revenue of 9.99 billion and EBITDAaL of 3.34 billion, a 1.6% and 2.7% year-over-year growth, respectively. Results were a touch ahead of FactSet consensus and firmly on track to achieve the firm's 2024 guidance of low-single-digit growth in EBITDAaL. France stood out positively this quarter, growing revenue 1.3%. organically. Although Iliad and SFR have recently increased their promotional activity, Orange is holding up well so far. Both Iliad and SFR have launched cheaper plans in the lower end part of the market, where customers are more price sensitive. Management said its response to this threat is to make an effort to try to retain customers, which is manifesting in low churn rates. SFR has launched some converged price promotions, but Orange's France converged grew 4.6% year on year, mainly driven by price increases of 5.3%. With no changes to our estimates, we maintain our EUR 13.40 fair value estimate.

No-moat Orange's second-quarter results were aligned with company-compiled consensus estimates. Revenue of EUR 9.99 billion and EBITDAaL of EUR 3.1 billion (excluding Spain) respectively grew by 0.9% and 2.5% organically. This quarter continues the good trends seen in the previous quarter, and Orange is well on track to reach its 2024 guidance of low-single-digit growth in EBITDAaL. Orange is also doing acceptably on the cost front, with most cost lines having remained constant compared with the same quarter last year. Capital expenditures grew 5%, partially offsetting the contribution of EBITDAaL growth in free cash flow. Overall, the good set of results is positive for Orange’s dividend ambitions, which expects to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.75 per share this year. We are maintaining our EUR 13.40 fair value estimate.

Although no-moat Orange's results were aligned with consensus estimates, shares declined by 4% during the trading session. Revenue of EUR 9.85 billion and EBITDAaL of EUR 2.41 billion (excluding Spain) grew by 2.1% and 2.3% organically, respectively, both aided by double-digit growth in Africa. This is in line with Orange’s guidance for 2024, which is set at low-single-digit growth in EBITDAaL. We are maintaining our EUR 13.40 fair value estimate. We believe Orange is faring well in general, making modest increases to its dividend, reducing capital intensity, and keeping financial leverage in check.

Orange delivered on its financial outlook for 2023, and has set targets for the next two years after the deconsolidation of the Spanish business and merger with MasMovil is complete. Revenue increased 1.8% organically to reach EUR 44.1 billion, driven by growth in service revenue, partially offset by an expected decline in wholesale service revenue. EBITDA after leases reached EUR 13 billion, in line with Orange’s ambition of low-single-digit growth, mainly supported by its Europe and Africa and Middle East divisions. The proposed dividend is EUR 0.72 per share, which Orange intends to raise to EUR 0.75 next year, a target we believe is achievable. Despite its tough position in Spain, we believe Orange is faring well, making modest increases to its dividend, reducing capital intensity, and keeping financial leverage in check. Orange’s midterm target is for net debt/EBITDAal of 2 times, lower than the average for European telecom businesses.

Orange operates in several countries, but its strongest region is France, where it enjoys a comfortable position as the incumbent operator and has good relationships with the government, which owns 23% of the company. Orange's strategy in France is simple: Maintain market share in mobile and fixed markets and try to offset potential pricing pressures with employee cost reductions, where Orange is limited by French regulations. Orange has also been the main installer of fiber-optic cables in France, which will result in better unit economics for the company in the long term as the payment scheme set by French regulators favors players that took more risks in the buildout phase. In the mobile segment, Orange has maintained a relatively stable market share for the past decade but with shrinking average revenue per user caused by Iliad’s entrance, which has pruned the company’s revenue. Over the past decade, Orange has managed to keep its EBITDA margins stable in France, offsetting low revenue growth with cost reductions. We expect this to be the strategy in the future.