Dassault Aviation: Fair Value Raised 47% on Thales Update, Indian Navy Order, and Rafale Ramp-Up

We've raised our fair value estimate for Dassault Aviation to EUR 334 per share from EUR 227 to reflect the revised fair value estimate for Thales (26% owned by Dassault), the confirmed Indian Navy order for 26 Rafale Marine jets, and stronger long-term assumptions on production ramp-up and export share. We now assume Dassault reaches a steady Rafale production rate of three per month by 2027 and four per month by 2029, supported by the Indian Navy order and broader export momentum. Deliveries are projected to rise from 25 aircraft in 2025 to 36 by 2027. The Rafale F5 standard, expected to enter service by 2030, will integrate manned/unmanned teaming, enhanced sensors, and networked capabilities, strengthening the platform’s export competitiveness and bridging the transition to the Future Combat Air System.