Hansen Earnings: Soft Result in the First Half as Business Slips Into Second Half

We increase our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Hansen by 5% to AUD 4.20 per share with first-half results. The result appeared somewhat soft, yet management reiterated its prior guidance. We have lowered our near-term forecasts toward the lower end of management’s guidance. Our upgrade reflects the time value of money and slightly lower forecast capital expenditure. At current prices, Hansen shares screen as materially overvalued, and not reflective of a company struggling to increase revenue in line with the broader software sector.