Company Reports

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies. However, we view this opportunity as limited.

Hansen shares fell more than 20% as it reported full-year results and announced Andrew Hansen will step down from the role of CEO. Underlying EBITDA was up 7% as a 2% decline in revenue was offset by lower operating expenses.

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies. However, we view this opportunity as limited.

Hansen shares have sold off more than a third since their peak last year and have reached five-year lows. We have analyzed what we view as the core assumption behind the decline, namely the lowering of implementation costs and, therefore, switching costs, because of artificial intelligence.

Shares in Technology One and Hansen have fallen 30% and 20%, respectively, since September 2025. Advancements in artificial intelligence, including data analysis tools and "vibe coding" software built from prompts, have accelerated investor concerns about AI's impact on software stocks.

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies. However, we view this opportunity as limited.

Hansen's first-half fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA is up 46% to AUD 56 million, reflecting a soft half last year and improved cost control. The company expects second-half revenue to exceed first-half, along with underlying fiscal 2026 EBITDA margins of around 30%. Shares rose 12%.

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies. However, we view this opportunity as limited.

Hansen is acquiring Digitalk, a UK-based software provider for mobile virtual network operators, or MVNOs. Hansen will spend around AUD 66 million for 100% of the company.

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies. However, we view this opportunity as limited.

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies.

Hansen reported full-year results with revenue up 11%, which was in line with its July guidance upgrade. But results were boosted by one-off license revenue and inorganic revenue growth. Management also refrained from giving specific fiscal 2026 guidance.

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies.

Hansen raised its fiscal 2025 underlying EBITDA guidance to AUD 110 million-AUD 112 million, from AUD 92 million-AUD 101 million. Cost cutting and Powercloud returning to profitability drove the improvement. However, revenue guidance is cut to AUD 391-393 million, from AUD 398-AUD 405 million.

Hansen's shares have trended lower since reporting a soft first-half fiscal 2025 result, with revenue weighed down by slower customer renewals and muted organic growth. Separately, competitor Constellation Software flagged a weaker acquisition pool at its annual general meeting in May.

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies.

We increase our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Hansen by 5% to AUD 4.20 per share with first-half results. The result appeared somewhat soft, yet management reiterated its prior guidance. We have lowered our near-term forecasts toward the lower end of management’s guidance. Our upgrade reflects the time value of money and slightly lower forecast capital expenditure. At current prices, Hansen shares screen as materially overvalued, and not reflective of a company struggling to increase revenue in line with the broader software sector.

We expect Hansen to focus on pursuing inorganic growth opportunities, either through geographic expansion of existing functions or expansion into new functional adjacencies.

In our special report 'Uncovering the Hidden SaaS Profits' we discuss why software-as-a-service companies, can be structurally underestimated by the market and how investors can use this market inefficiency to find opportunities. We believe narrow moat SiteMinder provides such an opportunity, as it is trading well below our AUD 10 per share fair value estimate.

Hansen’s fiscal 2024 result missed our expectations. While revenue came in a little higher than forecast, with particularly strong growth in the energy and utilities vertical, margins disappointed. This was partly due to a larger-than-expected drag from Powercloud, a German-based billing and customer management software company acquired by Hansen in early 2024.