Keyera: Strong Liquids Growth Drives Fourth-Quarter Results With Few Surprises

We expect to maintain our CAD 41 fair value estimate following no-moat Keyera’s fourth-quarter results. Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 313 million marginally fell below our expectations. Yet, we see no reason to deviate from the upper end of management’s medium-term adjusted EBITDA outlook of 7% to 8% since we observe plenty of long-term demand drivers—these include filling available capacity at gas plants such as Wapiti and Simonette, liquids growth associated with an emerging play, and the Key Access Pipeline System, or KAPS, capacity, Keyera’s largest-ever project with joint venturer-operator Stonepeak.