Company Reports

We will discontinue analyst coverage of Keyera on or about Dec. 31, 2025.

Keyera's adjusted EBITDA excluding acquisition and integration costs totaled CAD 286 million, an 11% year-on-year decline, lower than expectations. Gathering and processing and liquids infrastructure contributed to growth, but marketing declined.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. We believe the firm has effectively captured growth opportunities through KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new initiatives to pursue. Other future growth can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast liquefied petroleum gas exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

Keyera reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of CAD 252 million, down 23% from CAD 326 million in the same period last year. The gathering and processing and liquids infrastructure segments saw high-single-digit realized margin increases in the quarter, but marketing more than offset them.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. We believe the firm has effectively captured growth opportunities through KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new initiatives to pursue. Other future growth can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast liquefied petroleum gas exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

In mid-June, Keyera announced it was acquiring Plains' Canadian NGL business in an all-cash deal valued at $5.15 billion. The purchase price represents 7.8 times to expected 2025 adjusted EBITDA, or 6.8 times when including Keyera's anticipated near-term cost savings.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System, or KAPS. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. We believe the firm has effectively captured growth opportunities through KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new initiatives to pursue. Future growth other than KAPS can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast LPG exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

Keyera reported first-quarter earnings, highlighting adjusted EBITDA of CAD 298 million, down from CAD 314 million in the same period in 2024. Management plans to begin construction of additional fractionation capacity midyear, aligned with its goal of expanding liquids-servicing cash flows.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System or KAPS. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. We think the firm has done well in capturing growth opportunities via KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new efforts to pursue. Future growth other than KAPS can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast LPG exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

We expect to maintain our CAD 41 fair value estimate following no-moat Keyera’s fourth-quarter results. Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 313 million marginally fell below our expectations. Yet, we see no reason to deviate from the upper end of management’s medium-term adjusted EBITDA outlook of 7% to 8% since we observe plenty of long-term demand drivers—these include filling available capacity at gas plants such as Wapiti and Simonette, liquids growth associated with an emerging play, and the Key Access Pipeline System, or KAPS, capacity, Keyera’s largest-ever project with joint venturer-operator Stonepeak.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System or KAPS. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. We think the firm has done well in capturing growth opportunities via KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new efforts to pursue. Future growth other than KAPS can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast LPG exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

No-moat rated Keyera released a business update that included 2025 guidance. The update highlighted both its strong balance sheet and vision to grow its fee-based adjusted EBITDA at a compound annual rate of 7%-8% over the next three years.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System or KAPS. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. We think the firm has done well in capturing growth opportunities via KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new efforts to pursue. Future growth other than KAPS can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast LPG exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

Keyera reported solid third-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITDA up 12% year over year to CAD 322 million. All segments—gathering and processing, liquids infrastructure, and marketing—reported year-on-year increases in realized margin. The firm is on track to meet its 2024 guidance. With the bulk of our financial projections unchanged, we maintain our CAD 39 fair value estimate and no-moat rating.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. We think the firm has done well in capturing growth opportunities via KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new efforts to pursue. Future growth other than KAPS can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast LPG exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

Keyera’s second-quarter results were quite good, led, for once, by the gathering and processes and liquids business as the marketing segment suffered from a six-week planned outage at Alberta Envirofuels. After updating our model to reflect slightly higher marketing profits for 2024, higher maintenance and slightly lower growth spending, our fair value estimate has increased to CAD 39 from CAD 36. Our no-moat rating is unchanged. Overall EBITDA improved 11% to CAD 326 million from last year’s levels.While marketing has historically led the firm’s performance for many quarters, it was the liquids and gathering and processing business that did well this quarter. The gathering and processing business benefited from strong volumes in the North region gas plants, and wildfires did not affect the business this year. The liquids business saw higher contributions from the Key Access Pipeline System as it continues to ramp up, and healthy fractionation, storage, and condensate volumes. We think the firm has done well capturing growth opportunities via KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new efforts to pursue. Future growth apart from KAPS can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast LPG exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. We think the firm has done well in capturing growth opportunities via KAPS, and it has an attractive slate of new efforts to pursue. Future growth other than KAPS can come from the Trans Mountain Expansion, LNG Canada, West Coast LPG exports, and higher condensate volumes from its North region gas plants serving the Montney and Duvernay basins. The physical marketing business will continue to serve as a way for Keyera to capture incremental margins off a highly integrated asset base to deliver product throughout North America.

Keyera’s first-quarter earnings were a bit better than expected, due to marketing outperformance yet again. Overall EBITDA improved 8% to CAD 314 million from last year’s levels. This marketing streak has continued a pattern for some time now, and Keyera continues to cling to its base marketing guidance of a midpoint of CAD 330 million. Now, 2024 is expected to achieve a midpoint of CAD 450 million, reflecting the continued strength of the iso-octane business. We’ve boosted our forecast for 2024 similarly, but also made sure that our 2025-28 marketing forecast reflects a minimum of CAD 476 million per year in contributions. Our revised fair value estimate is now CAD 36, up from CAD 34. Our no moat rating is unchanged.

Keyera's integrated business model is now finally benefiting from the Key Access Pipeline System. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. By increasing its proportion of long-term contracts and maximizing utilization rates across facilities, Keyera is positioned to take advantage of more stable cash flows in the future while capitalizing on Canadian oil sands, natural gas, and NGL growth.

Keyera stands to benefit from an integrated business model with significant potential to grow via the Key Access Pipeline System, which has come online in early 2023. The pipeline will connect the firm’s northern plants to its Fort Saskatchewan liquids hubs and will consist of pipelines for condensate and natural gas liquids mix. By increasing its proportion of long-term contracts and maximizing utilization rates across facilities, Keyera is positioned to take advantage of more stable cash flows in the future while capitalizing on Canadian oil sands, natural gas, and NGL growth.