Telenor Earnings: Strong Performance in the Nordics Supports Guidance Fulfillment

Narrow-moat Telenor reported service revenue of NOK 16.3 billion in the fourth-quarter of 2024, representing a 1.1% organic increase year over year. Management was able to effectively execute its strategic plan, largely meeting its guidance for the year. In 2024, group EBITDA grew organically by 3.5%, resulting in free cash flow before mergers and acquisitions of NOK 11.4 billion, significantly surpassing the higher end of the NOK 9.5 billion-NOK 10 billion guided range. For 2025, the Telenor Nordics business expects to generate low- to mid-single-digit organic EBITDA growth and around NOK 13 billion in free cash flow before M&As. With no changes to our assumptions, we maintain our NOK 130 fair value estimate and see the shares as slightly overvalued.