Company Reports

Telenor's second quarter had more shadows than lights, and management downgraded 2026 guidance for the second time this year. It now expects flat to low-single-digit EBITDA growth, down from the previous outlook for low-single-digit growth.

Telenor is Norway's incumbent telecommunications operator and also operates in other Scandinavian countries and Asia. Its business is mature and growing slowly with a high reliance on mobile operations, but it generates significant free cash flow and has increased dividends nicely in recent years. Telenor expanded into emerging markets earlier than many European telecoms.

Telenor lowered its 2026 EBITDA growth outlook and now expects low- to mid-single-digit growth compared with mid-single-digit growth previously. Finland and Bangladesh are the key drivers of the cutback, while Norway remained strong at delivering 3.2% organic revenue growth.

Telenor is Norway's incumbent telecommunications operator and also operates in other Scandinavian and Asian countries. Its business is mature and growing slowly with high reliance on mobile operations, but it generates significant free cash flow and has increased dividends nicely in recent years. Telenor expanded into emerging markets earlier than many European telecom operators.

The Morningstar Developed Markets Europe Communication Services Index has returned 23.7% year to date, thanks to renewed hopes for consolidation and modestly improving conditions in markets like Italy.

Telenor tightened its 2025 outlook on the back of another solid quarter in the Nordics, where organic EBITDA rose 8% year on year. Management expects 2025 service revenue growth of 2%-3% and organic adjusted EBITDA growth of 8%-9%.

Just like peer Tele2 a day earlier, Telenor on July 18, 2025, reported strong second-quarter results, upgrading its full-year guidance. Group EBITDA was up 3.7% year over year.

Telenor is Norway's incumbent telecom operator and also operates in other Scandinavian and Asian countries. Its business is mature and growing slowly with high reliance on mobile operations, but it generates significant free cash flow and has increased dividends nicely in recent years. Telenor expanded into emerging markets earlier than many European telecom operators.

We are updating our moat ratings for eight European telecom stocks. European telecom companies lack the scale and pricing of international peers. Network redundancies and little cross-border synergies are common, and the regulatory landscape is not supportive of competitive advantages.

Telenor is Norway's incumbent telecom operator and also operates in other Scandinavian and Asian countries. Its business is mature and growing slowly with high reliance on mobile operations, but it generates significant free cash flow and has increased dividends nicely in recent years. Telenor expanded into emerging markets earlier than many European telecom operators.

Telenor's first-quarter 2025 results were aligned with our expectations and management guidance, with service revenue and adjusted EBITDA of NOK 19.7 billion and NOK 8.6 billion, up 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively.

Telenor is the incumbent telecom operator in Norway and operates in Nordic and Asian countries. Its business is mature and growing slowly with high reliance on mobile operations, but it generates significant free cash flow and has increased dividends nicely in recent years. Telenor expanded into emerging markets earlier than many European telecom operators.

Narrow-moat Telenor reported service revenue of NOK 16.3 billion in the fourth-quarter of 2024, representing a 1.1% organic increase year over year. Management was able to effectively execute its strategic plan, largely meeting its guidance for the year. In 2024, group EBITDA grew organically by 3.5%, resulting in free cash flow before mergers and acquisitions of NOK 11.4 billion, significantly surpassing the higher end of the NOK 9.5 billion-NOK 10 billion guided range. For 2025, the Telenor Nordics business expects to generate low- to mid-single-digit organic EBITDA growth and around NOK 13 billion in free cash flow before M&As. With no changes to our assumptions, we maintain our NOK 130 fair value estimate and see the shares as slightly overvalued.

Narrow-moat Telenor reported service revenue organic growth of 2.1% to NOK 16.2 billion and group EBITDA growth of 1.8% to NOK 9.2 billion, a touch behind company-compiled consensus but largely explained by a confluence of social unrest in Bangladesh. As a result, organic service revenue in Asia fell by 1%. On the back of strong results in the Nordics, management narrowed group level organic EBITDA growth guidance to 3%-4% from midsingle digits and increased its free cash flow before mergers and acquisitions ambition to the top half of the guided NOK 9 billion-NOK 10 billion. We continue to believe Telenor is on track to achieve its ambitions. We maintain our NOK 130 fair value estimate.

Telenor is the incumbent telecom operator in Norway and operates in Nordic and Asian countries. Its business is mature and growing slowly with high reliance on mobile operations, but it generates significant free cash flow and has increased dividends nicely in recent years. Telenor expanded into emerging markets earlier than many European telecom operators.

Narrow-moat Telenor reported service revenue of NOK 16.3 billion, which represents a 4.5% organic increase year over year. The increase in service revenue continues to be driven by mobile service revenue growth on the back of increasing average revenue per user in all Nordic markets except Finland. In Finland, the improvement came from an increase in the subscriber base. These results support our belief that Telenor can gradually increase prices without losing significant market share, especially in Norway, where it is the incumbent with a very high market share. In Asia, organic service revenue increased by 6.4%, primarily attributed to the continued positive development in data usage and data users in Grameenphone, Telenor's Bangladesh business, and growth in average revenue per user in Pakistan. For the group, first-half 2024 organic service revenue increased 5.1%. Group EBITDA was NOK 8.8 billion, up 3.8% year over year on an organic basis. Management took the opportunity to raise its 2024 organic revenue guidance from a low single digit to low- to mid-single digit, but maintained its goal of mid-single-digit EBITDA growth. We continue to believe Telenor is well positioned to reach these ambitions and make no changes to our estimates. We maintain our NOK 130 fair value estimate.

Narrow-moat Telenor reported service revenue of NOK 15.8 billion in the first quarter, which represents a 5.6% organic increase year over year. The increase in service revenue was driven by mobile service revenue growth in the Nordics, thanks to average revenue per user increases in all markets except Denmark. In Denmark, the improvement came from an increase in the subscriber base. We continue to believe Telenor can gradually increase prices without losing significant market share, especially in Norway, where it is the incumbent with a very high market share. In Asia, organic service revenue increased by 6%, primarily attributed to positive development in data usage and an increase in data users in Grameenphone. EBITDA was NOK 8.5 billion or a 43.7% margin, up 6.9% year over year on an organic basis and slightly above our 2024 EBITDA margin estimate of 43%. Telenor is well positioned to reach its 2024 financial ambitions of low- to mid-single-digit growth in service revenue and mid-single-digit growth in EBITDA. We maintain our NOK 130 fair value estimate.

Telenor is the incumbent telecom operator in Norway and operates in Nordic and Asian countries. Its business is mature and growing slowly with high reliance on mobile operations, but it generates significant free cash flow and has increased dividends nicely in recent years. Telenor expanded into emerging markets earlier than many European telecom operators.

Narrow-moat Telenor reported service revenue of NOK 16.1 billion in fourth-quarter 2023, a 4.9% organic increase year over year, in line with expectations. The service revenue increase was driven by mobile price increases in all markets, except Denmark, and mobile subscriber growth in all markets, except Norway. We continue to believe Telenor can increase prices without losing subscribers, especially in Norway, where it is the incumbent with a very high market share. In Asia, service revenue increased 7%, largely due to increased data usage and price adjustments in Grameenphone and Pakistan. EBITDA grew 3.9% on an organic basis to NOK 8.5 billion, but saw a slight margin decline to a 40.4% margin from 40.9% a year ago.

Telenor is the incumbent telecom operator in Norway and operates in Nordic and Asian countries. Its business is mature and growing slowly with high reliance on mobile operations, but it generates significant free cash flow and has grown dividends nicely in recent years. Telenor expanded into emerging markets earlier than many European telecom operators.