Marsh McLennan Earnings: Growth Holds Strong

Marsh McLennan has been benefiting from multiple tailwinds over the past couple of years that have pushed growth above our long-term expectations. We had seen signs that growth was starting to normalize, but the company bucked this trend in the fourth quarter, with organic year-over-year growth picking up a bit to 7%. While the result is encouraging, we still expect growth to moderate going forward and will maintain our $179 fair value estimate for the narrow-moat company. We see shares as overvalued, as we believe the market is extrapolating recent growth rates too far into the future.