Company Reports

We maintain our CAD 29 fair value estimate for no-moat Northland Power following news of its CEO transition. We view shares as undervalued.

We maintain our CAD 29 fair value estimate for no-moat Northland Power following the company’s investor day. Northland Power, and its offshore wind peers, had a challenging 2023, but we see signs some of these pressures are abating. We view shares as undervalued.

No-moat Northland Power reported 2023 results and initiated 2024 guidance broadly consistent with our modeling assumptions. We will incorporate the results and outlook into our model shortly, but after a first look, we maintain our CAD 29 fair value estimate. We still see the shares as undervalued.

Clean energy stocks have had a roller-coaster 18 months. Optimism following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022 gave way to rising interest rates in 2023. We highlight three key themes for investors to focus on in 2024: interest rates, U.S. policy, and profitability.

We've lowered our fair value estimate for no-moat Northland Power to CAD 29 per share from CAD 31 following third-quarter results. The primary driver of our lower valuation is a slight reduction in our long-term development expectations. We still see the shares as undervalued.

Northland Power is a global power producer focused on developing, owning, and operating clean power infrastructure assets.

We lower our fair value estimate for Northland Power to CAD 31 from CAD 35 following its second-quarter results. The primary drivers of our lower valuation are a lower medium-term adjusted EBITDA forecast for the company's Spanish onshore renewables assets, as well as a tweak to our terminal multiple. Northland Power shares, along with other renewable developers, have been under pressure year to date as inflation and higher interest rates have roiled the renewables market. However, we see shares as undervalued following the decline.

Northland Power is a global power producer focused on developing, owning, and operating clean power infrastructure assets.

We maintain our CAD 35 fair value estimate for no-moat Northland Power following the sale of its stake in an offshore wind development portfolio. We view shares as undervalued following weakness year to date.

We lower our fair value estimate for Northland Power to CAD 35 from CAD 38 following its first-quarter results. The primary driver of our lower valuation is a higher capital expenditure forecast. We view shares as undervalued.

Northland Power is a global power producer focused on developing, owning, and operating clean power infrastructure assets.

We maintain our CAD 38 fair value estimate for Northland Power following its fourth-quarter results. We view Northland shares as undervalued.

Northland Power is a global power producer focused on developing, owning, and operating clean power infrastructure assets.

We lower our fair value estimate for Northland Power to CAD 38 per share from CAD 41 following the company's analyst day. The primary driver of our valuation adjustment is reflecting higher project costs for the company's offshore wind projects. We view shares as slightly undervalued.

We maintain our CAD 41 fair value estimate for no-moat Northland Power following the company's third-quarter results. We view the shares as fairly valued.

We raise our fair value estimate for Northland Power to CAD 41 from CAD 37 following its second-quarter results. The drivers of our higher valuation are increased expectations for its offshore wind segment over the next few years on European power price strength and an increase to our terminal multiple. We also update our Uncertainty Rating to Medium from High, consistent with our other renewable developer coverage.

Northland Power is a global power producer focused on developing, owning, and operating clean power infrastructure assets.

Less than two weeks after seemingly ending prospects of a climate spending bill, Sen. Joe Manchin and Senate Democrats announced support for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. While not final, the chances of ultimate passage appear high based on industry reports.

On July 14, U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, Democrat from West Virginia, indicated that he would not support a reconciliation package with additional climate incentives, seemingly ending the uncertainty of much of the past year. The rumored clean energy package had recently been pegged at around $300 billion and included extensions of existing tax credits for wind and solar as well as potential credits for newer technologies, such as hydrogen, stand-alone energy storage, and support for existing nuclear plants. Incentives for domestic solar manufacturing and electric vehicles were also contemplated.

We maintain our CAD 37 fair value estimate for Northland Power following its first-quarter results. We view shares as fairly valued. Northland posted a solid start to the year driven by strong offshore wind resource and (to a lesser extent) strong power prices. Offshore wind adjusted EBITDA increased 8% year on year driven by 11% higher electricity production (3% above historical average). We place less emphasis on quarterly resource variations within Northland's offshore wind portfolio as we expect these to balance out over time.