AGL Energy Ltd

AGL: XASX (AUS)

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AGL Energy: Minor Power Station Outage Unlikely to Hurt Profits Much

Adrian Atkins

Dec 17, 2024

No-moat AGL Energy screens as slightly undervalued. Due to an unplanned outage at one of the units at the Bayswater power station in recent months, we reduce our fiscal 2025 net profit after tax forecast by a few percent. However, with a tight electricity market, as other power stations also have issues, electricity futures prices have increased. Electricity futures prices for 2025 in key New South Wales and Victorian markets have risen about 20% since October. This boosts earnings potential, leading us to upgrade AGL’s fiscal 2026 NPAT forecast by 7%. The movement in short-term earnings is not material enough to move our AUD 12 per share fair value estimate.

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AGL Energy Ltd

AGL Energy: Minor Power Station Outage Unlikely to Hurt Profits Much

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