Company Reports

AGL Energy's fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA increased 4% to AUD 2.2 billion and underlying NPAT fell 1% to AUD 631 million. EPS was AUD 0.94, and DPS totaled AUD 0.50, fully franked. Midpoints of fiscal 2027 guidance imply a 2% reduction in EBITDA and a 10% reduction in NPAT. Shares rose 5%.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

Electricity futures prices for 2027 have fallen 20% or more in New South Wales and Victoria since March 2026 because of new renewable supply and good power station reliability. With a well-supplied grid and rollout of new batteries, volatility has also fallen.

AGL marginally lifted the lower end of its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance range on higher generation plant availability, along with improved retail margins and cost control. Underlying NPAT guidance is now for AUD 610 million-AUD 680 million, from AUD 580 million at the low end previously.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

AGL Energy's first-half underlying NPAT fell 6% to AUD 353 million as higher costs offset stronger retail margins and generation reliability. EBITDA was flat, dividends increased 4%, and management lifted full-year underlying NPAT guidance by 5% at the midpoint. Shares rose 10% on the day.

AGL Energy has two large batteries under construction in the Hunter Valley, which management expects to offset the headwind from costlier gas and coal supply. AGL has another four batteries close to final investment decisions across New South Wales and Queensland.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

AGL Energy's fiscal 2025 underlying net profit after tax decreased 21% to AUD 640 million on lower retail margins caused by cost-of-living pressures, lower wholesale electricity prices, and higher gas costs. Dividends also fell 21% to AUD 0.48 per share, fully franked.

The Reserve Bank of Australia modelling suggests US tariffs have the potential to wipe 1% from the level of Australian gross domestic product over the next few years, but the actual damage will depend on monetary and fiscal stimulus both domestically and in major trading partners.

AGL Energy's first-half fiscal 2025 underlying EBITDA fell by 1% to AUD 1.07 billion as a strong generation performance largely offset lower retail gross profits and higher corporate costs. Underlying net profit after tax fell 7% to AUD 373 million, hurt by a higher depreciation charge.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

No-moat AGL Energy screens as slightly undervalued. Due to an unplanned outage at one of the units at the Bayswater power station in recent months, we reduce our fiscal 2025 net profit after tax forecast by a few percent. However, with a tight electricity market, as other power stations also have issues, electricity futures prices have increased. Electricity futures prices for 2025 in key New South Wales and Victorian markets have risen about 20% since October. This boosts earnings potential, leading us to upgrade AGL’s fiscal 2026 NPAT forecast by 7%. The movement in short-term earnings is not material enough to move our AUD 12 per share fair value estimate.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

No-moat AGL Energy’s earnings recovered strongly in fiscal 2024. Underlying net profit after tax nearly tripled to AUD 812 million, 3% ahead of our expectations. Strong earnings growth was mainly driven by higher electricity prices and improved power station operating performances. Dividends totaled AUD 0.61 per share, unfranked, a 50% payout of underlying EPS.

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest integrated energy companies. Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing contributing just a fifth of operating earnings. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.