Stellantis and Volkswagen Most Exposed to Impact of Trump's Proposed Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Following President-Elect Donald Trump's call for a 25% import tariff on vehicles manufactured in Mexico and Canada, making it economically unviable to sell cars produced in these two countries to the US, we examine European auto original equipment manufacturers' US production footprints relative to their share of sales in the US. A "positive misalignment" suggests greater exposure to import tariffs and potentially, the need for increased capital expenditure on US-based production plants over the medium term. We estimate Stellantis and Volkswagen are most at risk, followed by Porsche.