National Grid Earnings: Highly Dilutive Rights Issue to Fund Investments Step-Up

We maintain our GBX 1,040 fair value estimate after National Grid released fiscal 2024 results that were in line with company-compiled consensus and a new 5-year strategic plan calling for a massive step-up in investments to be funded by a GBP 7 billion rights issue and noncore asset disposals. The firm will pay a GBX 58.5 dividend in fiscal 2024, 5.6% above last year. It extends its target to grow the dividend in line with inflation through fiscal 2029 with the caveat that the 2024 dividend will be rebased to take into account the rights issue's shares. All in all, we forecast a 2025 dividend of GBX 43.