Plains: Boosting Fair Value Estimate To $18

After rolling our model and lowering our 2024 forecast modestly to about $2.65 billion, we have increased our fair value estimate to $18 from $16 for the Plains entities. The update is primarily attributable to the time value of money, but also because we expect slightly higher oil volumes and tariffs beyond 2026 than previously, due largely to inflation and the Permian pipeline takeaway market becoming modestly tighter over time as volumes fill up existing pipelines. Our no-moat rating remains unchanged for the Plains entities.