Ionis Earnings: Maintaining $62 Fair Value Estimate; Wainua a Precursor to Two Independent Launches

Ionis reported fourth-quarter results that were ahead of our expectations due to the timing of milestone and collaboration revenue payments, with 2024 guidance slightly below our estimates, and we’re maintaining our $62 fair value estimate as the firm’s commercial portfolio expands. Revenue increased 34% in 2023, which helped reduce operating losses despite more investment in leading programs approaching the market. Royalties from partner Biogen for spinal muscular atrophy drug Spinraza were roughly flat at $240 million in 2023, as Spinraza is retaining share despite strong competition from Roche’s Evrysdi. Ionis and AstraZeneca’s ATTR polyneuropathy drug Wainua is launching in the US, and we expect Wainua’s once-monthly, self-administered injection to help it gain some market share from Alnylam’s Amvuttra, although we continue to see first-to-market Alnylam maintaining a lead. Ionis also expects Wainua data in the larger cardiomyopathy indication in 2025, if the firm takes an early look at data, or 2026 if the trial runs to completion. Amvuttra’s similar trial should produce data in mid-2024 that could influence Ionis’ decision. With two additional Ionis pipeline drugs poised to reach the market by 2025, we think the portfolio is growing nicely and continuing to support the firm’s narrow moat.