Winnebago Earnings: Fiscal 2024 Starts With Slow Dealer Demand That Will Stay Into Q2

Winnebago warned on its October earnings call that the first two quarters of fiscal 2024 would have formidable challenges due to dealers being very cautious on inventory accumulation while they clear out 2023 model year product. First-quarter fiscal 2024 results showed that is the case, and management expects fiscal second-quarter revenue and profit to be lower than the first quarter. We don’t see a reason to change our fair value estimate, however, because we and the company expect a second half rebound once dealer restocking resumes, provided the U.S. avoids a recession. Recent news on 2024 interest-rate cuts coming may help nudge dealers’ confidence levels upward to resume orders in the spring. As we said in our Oct. 18 note, the assumption of a rebound in the second half of the fiscal year is critical to fiscal 2024 results. CEO Michael Happe also said that on the March fiscal second-quarter earnings call the company will update long-term guidance given at the November 2022 investor day, but unlike that day, guidance will be for beyond fiscal 2025.