Moderna: Positive Melanoma Data Support Our $227 Fair Value Estimate

We’re maintaining our $227 fair value estimate for Moderna following positive long-term data that we believe supports the value of the firm’s mRNA technology as a novel cancer treatment. Moderna and partner Merck released three-year follow-up data for melanoma patients in a phase 2 study who were given a combination of Merck’s Keytruda and Moderna’s mRNA-based therapy mRNA-4157. These patients saw a 49% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death and a 62% reduction in the risk of distant metastasis or death relative to patients who received Keytruda alone, which is the standard of care for patients with resectable disease that is at high risk of recurrence. This data is quite similar to two-year data disclosed earlier this year, which showed a 44% reduction in risk of recurrence or death and 65% reduction in risk of distant metastasis or death. Merck and Moderna have already moved the program into phase 3 studies in both melanoma and lung cancer, and we expect several other studies to begin soon, as we think the personalized nature of the treatment, as well as phase 1 data already released in lung cancer, strongly point to its potential across multiple types of cancer.