Adyen: Investor Day Was a Success and Rectified Many Earlier Communication Missteps

Adyen’s management will be pleased with how its investor day turned out, not least due to the share price reaction. Apart from the usual update across the different business segments and how Adyen believes it is differentiating itself from competitors, we believe an improved guidance delivery, a clearer buildup of its assumptions underlying guidance, and more detailed commentary around the competitive pressures in the U.S. have rectified many of the missteps of previous earnings calls. We retain our EUR 1,660 per share fair value estimate. We anticipate that the investor day will have weakened the bearish narrative put forth on Adyen over the last quarter. Importantly, we don’t think the view that Adyen’s competitive advantage is not applicable in the U.S. holds water. Indeed, Adyen made a good case for why it anticipates further above-market growth in the U.S. Regular quarterly updates over the next year paired with an expanding EBITDA margin should rebuild confidence in Adyen’s growth story, closing the valuation gap to our fair value estimate.