Company Reports

Adyen is capturing the e-commerce market by solving the complex payment needs of large and global merchants. It combines the entire merchant acquiring value chain, including settlement, into a single platform, offering local acquiring services globally, reducing costs for merchants, and allowing its clients to scale worldwide in an instant.

Adyen reported good first-half results on solid growth across its divisions, slightly ahead of our expectations. Adyen raised its full-year top-line guidance by one percentage point to reflect the contribution of recent acquisitions.

Adyen announced the acquisition of Orb, an enterprise billing platform, for EUR 335 million.

Adyen reported 16% net revenue growth, 20% on a constant currency basis, in its first-quarter business update.

Adyen announced the acquisition of Talon.One, a loyalty program and promotions management platform.

Adyen reported a decent second-half 2025 with net revenue growth of 17%, but shares sold off sharply. We think a narrowing of 2026 net revenue guidance is the likely cause of this reaction.

Adyen is capturing the e-commerce market by solving the complex payment needs of large and global merchants. It combines the entire merchant acquiring value chain, including settlement, into a single platform, offering local acquiring services globally, reducing costs for merchants, and allowing its clients to scale worldwide in an instant.

Adyen reported net revenue growth of 20% for its third quarter, or 23% on a constant-currency basis. Guidance for 2025 was unchanged. The payment processor now expects net revenue growth in the low to mid-20s in 2026.

Adyen reported first-half net revenue of EUR 1.1 billion, up 20% year on year. US tariffs affecting large Asia-Pacific clients in particular and a weakening US dollar shaved off about 2 percentage points of top-line growth in the second quarter, moving management to soften 2025 guidance.

Adyen reported a limited first-quarter business update, posting net revenue of EUR 534.7 million (up 22%) and volume growth of 6% (25% if we exclude one large client). The performance was in line with our expectations. Guidance was unchanged, although Adyen highlighted that the acceleration of net revenue growth this year may be hindered if tariff tensions weigh on consumer spending. It is important to note that Adyen grows primarily from signing up new merchants and taking share from competitors processing for the same merchants. This lowers its sensitivity around total market growth, but its fortunes are ultimately tied to the performance of its clients. We have lowered our near-term growth assumptions marginally but think the shares are attractive at current levels. Our fair value estimate is EUR 1,800 per share, down from EUR 1,950. Our Wide Economic Moat Rating and Exemplary Capital Allocation Rating are unchanged.

Adyen is capturing the e-commerce market by solving the complex payment needs of large and global merchants. It combines the entire merchant acquiring value chain, including settlement, into a single platform, offering local acquiring services globally, reducing costs for merchants, and allowing its clients to scale worldwide in an instant.

We raise our fair value estimate for Adyen to EUR 1,950 after the payments provider reported second-half figures in line with our expectations, but guided for a “slight acceleration” in net revenue for 2025. The 17% increase to our fair value estimate is partially driven by time value of money (6%) since our last model update, but more importantly, we raise our near-term net revenue growth assumptions. We now believe that Adyen can achieve 26% net revenue growth in 2025 (21% previously) and 25% in 2026 (22% previously), before we temper our growth assumptions. Adyen guides for net revenue growth between 20% and 30% until 2026. Processed volume growth in digital and platforms exceeded our expectations, which drives our improved outlook. First, continued high growth in digital volumes allays concerns that Adyen’s largest segment is starting to reach maturity. And second, platforms are displaying stronger traction with customers than we had anticipated. The greatest risk to our fair value estimate is the longevity of our volume growth forecast. Competition is not standing still and Adyen will need to continue to execute. That said, we believe we are still conservative in our growth assumptions as Adyen’s opportunity to capture share remains rich. We maintain our wide moat rating. With shares up around 14% after the release of second-half earnings, Adyen is trading marginally below our fair value estimate.

Adyen is capturing the e-commerce market by storm by solving the complex payment needs of large and global merchants. It combines the entire merchant acquiring value chain, including the settlement into a single platform, offering local acquiring services globally, reducing costs for merchants, and allowing its clients to scale worldwide in an instant. In our moat section of this report investors will find a more detailed description how Adyen serves its clients.

Adyen reported its third-quarter business update showing 20% revenue growth below consensus estimates of 22% as collected by FactSet. The release was limited to volume and net revenue figures, giving little insight into the dynamics Adyen was exposed to during the quarter. What we can deduct from the release is that the net take rate improved to 15.5 basis points from 14.8 basis points last quarter. We think it is likely that processed volume growth in platforms (up 44% year over year) and unified commerce (up 33% year over year) contributed to the better take rate. Typically, we observe a weaker net take-rate performance in tandem with strong volume growth in Adyen’s largest segment digital, which grew volumes by 29% compared with last year. We maintain our EUR 1,660 per-share fair value estimate and wide moat rating for Adyen. We believe shares are attractive at current levels.

Adyen reported a good set of results for the first half of 2024. Net revenue growth of 24% and processed volume growth of 45% showed similar good dynamics to what was reported during the first-quarter release. As expected, EBITDA margin improved to 46% from 43% in the same period last year as the payment-services provider has reduced its pace of hiring. We anticipate further margin improvement over the next years and believe that Adyen’s above-50% EBITDA margin target by 2026 is achievable. We maintain our EUR 1,660 fair value estimate and believe that Adyen offers good value at current levels. Our wide economic moat rating is unchanged.

Adyen reported a limited first-quarter business update providing net revenue and volume figures which were good, in our view. Nevertheless, the stock dropped more than 10% at the market opening. Large price movements on the day of earnings releases are not uncommon for Adyen, typically driven by what we believe to be the market extrapolating short-term movements too far into the future. We surmise the market is getting hung up on the divergence of volume growth and net revenue growth, which suggests a declining net take rate. We maintain our EUR 1,660 per-share fair value estimate and wide moat rating. At a price/fair value of about 0.75 at the time of writing, we believe shares are attractive again.

Adyen posted a good second half of 2023 after breaking its traditional semiannual reporting schedule and releasing good numbers for the third quarter in November already. As such, the good performance was not entirely unexpected. However, we think another confirmation that Adyen is on track to return to its growth trajectory and widening margins again will be appreciated by investors. Outside of good top-line growth (net revenue up 23% year over year) and EBITDA margins recovering to 48% from 43% in the first half as hiring has started to slow, Adyen has also shown noteworthy operational progress that we believe is supporting our bullish view on the stock. Lastly, we believe Adyen has taken investor criticism to heart and improved its communication strategy. We maintain our EUR 1,660 per share fair value estimate and wide economic moat rating.

Adyen’s management will be pleased with how its investor day turned out, not least due to the share price reaction. Apart from the usual update across the different business segments and how Adyen believes it is differentiating itself from competitors, we believe an improved guidance delivery, a clearer buildup of its assumptions underlying guidance, and more detailed commentary around the competitive pressures in the U.S. have rectified many of the missteps of previous earnings calls. We retain our EUR 1,660 per share fair value estimate. We anticipate that the investor day will have weakened the bearish narrative put forth on Adyen over the last quarter. Importantly, we don’t think the view that Adyen’s competitive advantage is not applicable in the U.S. holds water. Indeed, Adyen made a good case for why it anticipates further above-market growth in the U.S. Regular quarterly updates over the next year paired with an expanding EBITDA margin should rebuild confidence in Adyen’s growth story, closing the valuation gap to our fair value estimate.

Adyen published a third-quarter business update outside of its normal semiannual reporting schedule. Figures presented were limited to volumes and net revenue in the third quarter as well as growth rates across its business segments. Overall trends have been in line with those presented at the first half of the year. Processed volume increased 21% year over year while net revenue increased 22%. Digital volumes were up 21%, with the U.S. showing stable trends to those in the first half. Important to highlight here is that Adyen again grew above the market in the U.S. Unified commerce saw volumes increase 25% while platforms grew 15% (120% if we exclude eBay volumes). The take rate remained stable at 17 basis points relative to the same period a year ago, which suggests that Adyen did not engage in any price competition in the U.S. The largest change in the limited business update was a change in guidance. While Adyen was previously setting targets for the medium term and investors were lost at what exactly that would mean, the payment services provider now specified a clear time frame up to and including 2026. Importantly, Adyen reduced guidance significantly. Net revenue that was previously guided to be growing between the mid-20s and low-30s percent per year was now lowered to between low-20s and high-20s. EBITDA margin is guided to improve above 50% by 2026, the previous target was set at above 65% in the long term. Our assumptions are fully aligned with the updated guidance, and as such we do not make a change to our fair value estimate of EUR 1,660 per share. Our wide moat rating is also unchanged.

Adyen is capturing the e-commerce market by storm by solving the complex payment needs of large and global merchants. It combines the entire merchant acquiring value chain, including the settlement into a single platform, offering local acquiring services globally, reducing costs for merchants, and allowing its clients to scale worldwide in an instant. In our moat section of this report investors will find a more detailed description how Adyen serves its clients.