Brunswick: Investor Day Update Doesn’t Sway Our Long-Term Intrinsic Value Inputs

We don’t plan to alter our $118 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Brunswick after considering the 2027 outlook offered at its Sept. 18 investor event and view shares as attractive. Brunswick launched inaugural 2027 goals that include $8.7 billion in sales, a 16% operating margin, and $15 in EPS. Although all three of these metrics trail its prior 2025 goals—that included $10 billion in sales, a 17% operating margin, and $16-$17.50 in EPS—they are ahead of our 2027 forecast for $7.8 billion in sales, a 15% operating margin, and $13.79 in EPS. We plan to bump our 2027 estimates for sales and EPS to $8 billion and $14.60, respectively, while maintaining our 15% operating margin expectation. With fiscal 2023 sales now set to arrive near the low end of prior guidance of $6.7 billion and wholesale softness that could persist longer than anticipated, we have modestly lowered our outlook for the next 18 months to account for a slower improvement in category spending.