BlackBerry: 2023 Analyst Day Does Little to Grow Our Confidence in Security Strategy

We maintain our $4.90 fair value estimate for no-moat BlackBerry shares after the firm’s 2023 analyst day. Management largely reiterated existing targets and strategy throughout its presentations, in which we continue to hold moderate skepticism. We continue to have greater confidence in the firm’s Internet of Things business, which benefits from trends toward autonomous vehicles and is a market leader. However, the larger cybersecurity business remains disappointing and has an outsize effect on firmwide results. Overall, we see shares as fairly valued and would point investors to moaty and more discounted software names.