We Increase Aeroports De Paris’ Fair Value Estimate to EUR 115 as the Recovery Gains Momentum

Narrow-moat Aeroports de Paris is displaying signs of recovery as group traffic and revenue increased by 14.50% and 11.90% for the first nine months of the year, respectively. Traffic and revenue growth was almost entirely driven by a strong recovery in traffic at the group’s international airports, while traffic at Parisian airports remains depressed. Group traffic was 40% of 2019 levels for the first nine months, with third-quarter traffic at 50% of 2019 levels, in line with the recovery rates of European mainland peers. Guidance for the full year has been maintained, with traffic for the full year expected to be between 40% and 50% of 2019 levels and EBITDA margins in the 15% to 20% range--a sharp increase from the 8% EBITDA margin in 2020. Over the medium term the group continues to expect a gradual recovery in traffic to 90% of 2019 levels by 2024. We make slight changes to our near-term forecast, resulting in an increase in our fair value estimate to EUR 115 from EUR 110. Shares are trading in fair value territory.