Aeroports de Paris Lowers 2021 Traffic and EBITDA Guidance; FVE Unchanged

Narrow-moat Aeroports de Paris downgraded their 2021 guidance for traffic and EBITDA, while providing more color on longer-term capital expenditure plans. Group traffic for 2021 is now expected to be at 45% of 2019 levels (50% previously), while the EBITDA margin range has been lowered to between 15% and 20%, from 18% to 23% previously. This is on the back of a slower than expected recovery in traffic, as group consolidated passenger numbers of 49 million remain below 30% of 2019 levels for the first half of 2020. Traffic at the group’s Parisian airports is only at 20% of prepandemic levels for the period, while the international businesses are seeing a faster recovery. Longer-term, the group continues to guide for a traffic recovery between 2024 and 2027. We are at the bullish end of this range and expect a recovery to prepandemic traffic levels by 2024, as consumers respond positively to the relaxation of travel restrictions. We maintain our EUR 110 fair value estimate and believe shares are trading in fair value territory.