We are maintaining our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Apple following its annual product showcase.
We note Applied and its peers have all called for strong growth in 2021, driven by record capital expenditure levels at TSMC and Intel as well as solid memory spending. Management expects Applied’s fourth-quarter revenue to be up 34% year over year at the midpoint, with momentum persisting into 2022. Consequently, we are raising our fair value estimate to $131 per share from $125.
During the quarter, Nvidia benefited from cryptocurrency mining demand, including crypto mining processor, or CMP, sales of $266 million.
We’re raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Advanced Micro Devices to $109 per share (up from $101) on a probability-weighted basis as we await AMD’s acquisition of Xilinx.
We are raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Apple to $124 per share from $115 as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook due to the current 5G iPhone cycle and ongoing work- and learning-from-home dynamics bolstering Mac and iPad segments.
We are maintaining our $65 fair value estimate for wide-moat Intel and see the shares as modestly undervalued.
It continues to execute well in expanding its data center business.
We are raising our fair value estimate as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook due to the current 5G iPhone cycle and ongoing work- and learning-from-home dynamics.
AMD reported its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth thanks to broad-based PC, server, and game console strength.
We remain optimistic on Intel’s IDM 2.0 strategy to get its manufacturing back on track and develop a more meaningful foundry strategy. Nonetheless, we expect the next few quarters to be challenging.
Nvidia reported impressive fourth-quarter results with revenue ahead of management’s guidance.
We see strong growth and reduced cyclicality for the industry.
We are raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Apple to $98 per share from $85 as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook due to the current 5G iPhone cycle and ongoing work- and learning-from-home dynamics bolstering Mac and iPad segments.
We raise our fair value for no-moat AMD to $77 per share on a probability-weighted basis. We assess AMD’s standalone fair value at $67 per share. We assign a 75% probability of AMD’s acquisition of Xilinx closing, and our fair value for the combined entity would be $80 per share.
Intel reported fourth-quarter results that significantly exceeded its guidance, primarily due to stronger than expected PC demand related to the ongoing work- and learn-from-home trends stemming from COVID-19. Due to the impending CEO transition from Bob Swan to Pat Gelsinger (effective Feb. 15), management did not elaborate on its outsourcing plans or provide full-year guidance.
New CEO Pat Gelsinger has a rich technology background, having served as CEO of VMware since 2012.
Our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Qualcomm remains $124 per share.
Nvidia reported impressive third-quarter results with revenue exceeding the high end of management’s guidance.
We are raising our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Apple to $85 per share from $71 as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook for the Mac and iPad segments due to ongoing work- and learning-from-home dynamics.
AMD reported strong third-quarter results that exceeded our expectations led by PC, server, and game console growth. The firm also announced it will purchase narrow-moat Xilinx in an all-stock transaction valued at $35 billion.
This wide-moat company's long-term future is still promising as we view shares as undervalued.
We continue to view shares as undervalued for the wide-moat company.
We believe shares are overvalued for this narrow-moat tech company.
Our fair value estimates remain for both of the technology companies, but we think this deal would give AMD and Xilinx a competitive edge against Intel and Nvidia.
With its $40 billion bid, the chipmaker looks to corner the AI market.
We recommend prospective investors wait for a wider margin of safety before investing in Apple.
ARM was a wide-moat-rated firm, and we believe it is likely this cash/stock deal would enhance Nvidia’s narrow moat even further.
We are raising our Nvidia fair value estimate to $250 per share from $200, as we incorporate a stronger near-term outlook.
CEO Tim Cook noted weak sales in April were offset by better-than-expected demand in May and June led by the cheaper iPhone SE launch.
We are maintaining our $70 fair value estimate, as stronger near-term results and lower capital expenditure assumptions for 2020 are offset by lower long-term PC and data center CPU estimates (due to Apple shifting to internal chips for its Mac PCs and greater competition from AMD).
Shares of narrow-moat company are up over 70% since mid-March lows as we suspect the market is anticipating a 5G super-cycle for the firm’s upcoming iPhone.
We are maintaining our fair value estimates for both narrow-moat Apple and wide-moat Intel.
Product launches and Mellanox acquisition bode well, but we view shares as overvalued.
We are maintaining our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Apple, and we recommend prospective investors wait for a wider margin of safety.
We are maintaining our $70 fair value estimate for wide-moat Intel. Shares look attractive at current levels.
Multiple names are reaching or approaching 4-star territory.
We still think it is likely any near-term shortfall will be made up in subsequent quarters.
We are raising our fair value estimate for the firm.
We are raising our fair value estimate for the narrow-moat firm as we incorporate superior near-term prospects.
We are raising our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm as we incorporate the stronger near-term performance and outlook.
The leader in advanced driver-assistance systems contributes only a small part of the chipmaker's overall revenue for now, but sales are growing.
We are raising our fair value estimate, but shares of the narrow-moat firm look expensive.
With shares up 54% year-to-date, we recommend prospective investors seek a wider margin of safety.
We reiterate our view that shares look attractive at current levels for the wide-moat firm.
We don't expect a rebound in Apple's phone sales this year, and we think the stock's overvalued.
Wide-moat Intel shares look very attractive, while no-moat AMD shares are overvalued.
We recommend prospective investors steer clear of shares at current levels.
We're maintaining our $200 fair value estimate.
The market seems to be overestimating AMD's long-term prospects.
However, it remains central to our narrow moat rating.