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Exxon Girds for Lower-for-Longer Oil Prices

Exxon's move to cut capital expenditures is a departure for the firm and shows the company expects prices to remain low for an extended period, writes Morningstar's Allen Good.

Lower oil prices took a toll on

The sharp reduction marks a departure in strategy for Exxon, which prides itself on being able and willing to invest throughout the cycle. However, while the company is bullish on prices and demand in the long term, it has openly stated its view that prices are likely to remain low for an extended period, which is reflected in the decision to reduce capital expenditures. We look forward to the analyst day, where Exxon should provide greater detail on its strategy, given the collapse in oil prices, including longer-term spending plans and efforts to reduce costs. We plan to update our model with the latest guidance, but do not expect a material change in our fair value estimate or moat rating.

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About the Author

Allen Good

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Allen Good, CFA, is a director for Morningstar Holland BV, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. Based in Amsterdam, he covers the oil and gas industries. He is also chair of the Morningstar Research Services Economic Moat Committee, a group of senior members of the equity research team responsible for reviewing all Economic Moat and Moat Trend ratings issued by Morningstar.

Before joining Morningstar in 2008, he performed merger and acquisition advisory work for a middle-market investment bank. Before that, he spent several years at Black & Decker in various operational roles.

Good holds a bachelor’s degree in business from the University of Tennessee and a master’s degree in business administration from Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

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