Headwinds Still Blowing on J.P. Morgan
The narrow-moat bank benefited from scale advantages in the first quarter, but macroeconomic and regulatory hurdles could slow the firm in the near term.
That said, the company is still dealing with macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds, which could prevent the firm from reaching its full potential in the near term. The aforementioned legal expenses are not an encouraging sign as another year begins. High-quality liquid assets grew by 14% during the year, contributing to net interest margin pressure. Perhaps most importantly, low levels of interest rates are still constraining net interest margin. While short-term rates are widely expected to begin rising over the course of the year--CME Group futures data indicates a 58% probability of a rate hike by December--it could be some time before banks receive the full benefits of a normal rate environment. The long-term track record of rate forecasters is not inspiring.
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