Commodity prices diverged in the quarter. Despite solid China steel production, iron ore and metallurgical coal prices are down, while copper rose on supply issues and hopes of faster global growth. However, prices are elevated compared with history and cost-curve support.
South32 is a beneficiary of continued global population growth, urbanization and increased demand for commodities from industrialization.
Bears
The desire to diversify earnings into base metals and the need to eventually replace depletion presents a longer-term risk for missteps, with a major acquisition the key risk to the balance sheet.
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South32 was born of the demerger of noncore assets from BHP in 2015. South32’s major operations include alumina businesses in Australia and Brazil, aluminum in Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique, and manganese businesses in Australia and South Africa. It has agreed to sell New South Wales metallurgical coal, likely effective late 2024. It also owns the Cannington silver/lead/zinc mine in northwest Queensland and the Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia. Cannington and manganese operations deliver high returns, but have relatively short reserve life. The company acquired Arizona Mining, which brings with it the high-grade and likely low-cost Taylor project in the US, and also entered the copper business in 2022 via the purchase of a 45% stake in the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile.