Mirvac's residential sales, excluding conditional deposits, plunged more than 70% in the September quarter from the previous three months. The settlement default rate on a rolling 12-month basis ticked up to 1.1% from 0.3% three months ago, though still below the long-run average of 1.8%.
Strong population growth should underpin Mirvac’s earnings, particularly residential sales, and rents in the retail, industrial, build-to-rent, and land-lease sectors.
Bears
While Mirvac has some high-quality office assets, it also has significant exposure to the non-CBD office markets, where we expect occupancy recovery will be slower than towers in city centers.
Mirvac started off as a residential property developer and over time expanded into property investment, funds management, and commercial property development. Investment is the major earnings driver, generating about two-thirds of group earnings. The investment portfolio, by book value, is made up of 51% office, 21% retail, 20% industrial and the rest is build-to-rent and land lease assets. Longer term, Mirvac aims to increase exposure to the industrial and living sectors and own fewer offices and retail centers. Development income is volatile and was around one-third of fiscal 2026 group earnings. Besides developing apartments and houses, which Mirvac is best known for, it is also involved in commercial and mixed-use precinct developments.