Commodity prices diverged in the quarter. Despite solid China steel production, iron ore and metallurgical coal prices are down, while copper rose on supply issues and hopes of faster global growth. However, prices are elevated compared with history and cost-curve support.
Emerging-markets demand for steel, producer consolidation and supply discipline and the relative paucity of high-grade metallurgical coal deposits could backstop pricing.
Bears
A slower-growing Chinese steel industry if investment growth in infrastructure and real estate slows and ultimately reverses would likely exert significant downward pressure on metallurgical coal prices.
Start a free trial of Morningstar Investor to unlock exclusive ratings and continuous analyst coverage to help you decide if TECK.B is a good fit for your portfolio.
Teck is a diversified miner with coal, copper, and zinc operations in Canada, the United States, Chile, and Peru. Metallurgical coal is Teck's primary commodity in terms of EBITDA contribution, followed by copper and zinc. Teck is the world's second-largest exporter of seaborne metallurgical coal and is a top-three zinc miner. Its major new copper mine in Chile at the majority-owned Quebrada Blanca 2, in partnership with Sumitomo, will drive an increase in Teck’s attributable copper production by roughly 75%. Along with a number of additional copper growth options, Teck’s strategy is to rebalance its portfolio to low carbon metals such as copper. It sold its oil sands business in early 2023 and has agreed to sell its coal business, with the deal likely closing in the third quarter of 2024.