Bitcoin could fall even further if investors cash out to buy into the Anthropic IPO

By Isabel Wang

Bitcoin tumbled below $68,000 on Friday, its lowest level since Aug. 19

Bitcoin could have a new rival for investor cash: Anthropic's IPO.

Wall Street's next big IPO could come at crypto's expense.

Anthropic's (ANT) initial public offering next week may require investors to sell some of their existing assets to make room in their portfolio for what's been hyped as one of the most sought-after stock offerings in history.

Strategists think that could further test the cryptocurrency market, just as Treasury rate BX:TMUBMUSD10Y pressures and other worries send bitcoin toward its lowest level in three months.

The world's largest cryptocurrency (BTCUSD) at one point dropped below $68,000 on Friday, its lowest level since Aug. 19. For the week, bitcoin has plunged nearly 10%, putting it on pace for its worst weekly performance since June, according to CoinDesk data.

Other major cryptocurrencies and bitcoin-related stocks were also getting hammered this week, with ethereum (ETHUSD) down nearly 15% and trading at a three-month low of $1,926.47 on Friday. Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN) were off 5.5% this week, and Strategy (MSTR), the world's largest institutional holder of bitcoin, was 13.6% lower over the same period, according to FactSet data.

"The upcoming Anthropic IPO, potentially the largest in history, could also be drawing capital out of risk assets as investors position ahead of the offering," said Thomas Perfumo, chief economist at Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange.

With Anthropic's IPO coming as soon as next Thursday, investor demand for the shares has already been running six times higher than the number of shares available, according to Bloomberg. To get in on the deal, investors might need to move money out of other liquid investments, such as stocks or cryptocurrencies.

There's a precedent for crypto dropping ahead of mega IPOs due to a temporary liquidity drain, most notably in the runup to SpaceX's IPO (SPCX) earlier this year. Just weeks before that company's $75 billion public-market debut on June 12, bitcoin fell from over $80,000 to under $70,000.

"That could certainly be having an impact here," Jim Ferraioli, head of crypto research at Charles Schwab, said in reference to the selling in bitcoin this summer ahead of the SpaceX IPO.

Bitcoin's slide, just like any asset move, can't be pinned to a single driver. Market analysts said that recent risk-off sentiment across the broader financial market, sparked in part by Nvidia's (NVDA) selloff and the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer, also appears to be weighing on crypto.

"The evidence points more to a retreat from risk than a loss of conviction in bitcoin itself, with crypto-specific leverage and ETF outflows amplifying that risk-off move," analysts at Bitfinex Alpha told MarketWatch on Friday. "Bitcoin's weakness has come alongside volatility in technology shares, firmer yields and a stronger dollar DXY."

Higher interest rates can make bitcoin less attractive at the margin. Because bitcoin pays no yield, rising interest rates would make interest-bearing investments, like cash and short-term Treasurys, more attractive by comparison.

However, bitcoin has recently been reacting less to broader economic developments, such as changes in inflation or interest rates, than it has done over the past 10 years on average, said Ferraioli at Charles Schwab. "So these things still have an impact, but less of an impact than they traditionally do," he said.

From a technical perspective, the analysts at Bitfinex Alpha see $67,800 as a key support level for bitcoin, and a close above roughly $68,000 for the week could keep its long-term trend bullish.

"Bitcoin is testing support at its 200-week simple moving average of $67,800, a level many market participants treat as the dividing line between a long-term bull and bear market. Buyers will look to establish a floor here," the analysts told MarketWatch on Friday.

"But a close below the 200-week SMA would suggest that bitcoin is currently trading as a rate-sensitive risk asset rather than a long-horizon store of value," they added.

-Isabel Wang

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11-13-26 1626ET