Gas prices are finally below $4 a gallon, but Thanksgiving fuel costs will still be the highest since 2000

By Myra P. Saefong

'I don't think there's much ability for us to avoid this being the most expensive Thanksgiving on record' for gas prices, says Patrick De Haan at GasBuddy

The average price for a gallon of gasoline fell to $3.96 on Nov. 9, according to GasBuddy.

Average gas prices at the pump on Monday dropped below $4 for the first time nationally since August, but drivers still likely will face the highest prices during the Thanksgiving travel period since at least 2000.

The average price for gas stood at about $3.96 a gallon Monday - that's down nearly 16 cents a gallon over the past week, according to GasBuddy. The decline follows a nearly 13% fall in U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil prices (CL.1) last week.

This looks to be one of the larger declines "in the run-up to Thanksgiving that we've seen in a little while, just because of how high prices were to begin with," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

Even so, "I don't think there's much ability for us to avoid this being the most expensive Thanksgiving on record" for gas prices, he told MarketWatch.

AAA, a non-profit federation of regional motor clubs, said late last week that prices at the pump remain at the highest they've ever been during this time of year. Before 2026, the national average had never gone above $4 a gallon during the month of November, according to its data.

Gas prices look likely to continue declining in the weeks to come, said De Haan, predicting that the cost per gallon could fall to around $3.75 by Thanksgiving.

But even if it does, that price, based on data going back to 2000, would still be above the previous most-expensive Thanksgiving, which was in 2022 at $3.56 a gallon, said De Haan.

Gas prices tend to fall after the summer as the high-demand travel season winds down. After brutal losses in the midterm elections for Republicans, President Donald Trump suggested he's not looking to attack Iran soon. Comments from Trump downplaying the potential for further U.S. military escalation with Iran contributed to falling oil and gasoline prices, De Haan said.

Gas prices also typically drop in the run-up to U.S. elections, he said. In the 30 days prior to a U.S. election, gas prices posted declines each election year since 2006, with the exception of 2010, he said. Republicans saw sweeping gains in the November 2010 midterm elections.

What's been less typical has been the strength of the declines in prices right now, said De Haan - but that's because prices had been so elevated.

Keep in mind, the forecasted average gas price of $3.75 this Thanksgiving would be the highest ever "nominal" price for the holiday, he said. Adjusted for inflation, the highest Thanksgiving cost would likely have been 2011 or 2012.

In comments to MarketWatch, a White House official said oil prices fell by almost $10 a barrel and gasoline prices dropped by 16 cents a gallon in just one week. There's now more oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf than before the Iran conflict began, the official said.

Asked whether U.S. escalation with Iran was still unlikely, as Trump suggested in a "60 Minutes" interview on Sunday, the White House did not provide a response.

"How long we're on this trajectory of falling prices is really more of how quiet it is with geopolitical tensions" - and whether they move in the right direction to lead to lower oil prices, or whether those tensions heat up again, lifting prices, De Haan said.

-Myra P. Saefong

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11-09-26 1446ET