Nvidia, AMD and other chip stocks rebound - but is relief from the 'violent' selloff only temporary?

By Hannah Pedone

Analysts warn of further volatility ahead, although there are several new factors that work in the AI trade's favor

Shares of Nvidia, the chip maker led by CEO Jensen Huang, were bouncing on Friday.

Shares of key chip companies were rebounding on Friday from the sector's worst selloff in six years.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) closed up 11% and 8%, respectively. Micron Technology's stock (MU) rose 5%, while shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and Sandisk (SNDK) gained 3% and 4%, respectively. Broadcom's stock (AVGO) added less than 1%.

StoneX analyst Yi Fu Lee told MarketWatch that Thursday's "violent" selloff created an "obvious reflex opportunity" among AI-exposed chip stocks on Friday. He pointed out that the iShares Semiconductor exchange-traded fund SOXX fell 12% on Thursday, whereas the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV was under pressure as well but only lost 4%.

Stifel analyst Brian Chin labeled Friday's action a "volatility whipsaw" reaction. Chip stocks were bouncing, but the uncertainty around future data-center spending probably isn't going away, and he said that could keep stocks volatile for some time.

See also: Marvell and Lumentum shareholders unite in panning merger deal: 'It's a trash offer'

Yet investors can take comfort that the "underlying appetite" for artificial intelligence has not changed since the midterms elections, Chin added; rather, the regulatory pathway has "become more tricky."

There have been new positive developments on that front since Thursday's close. One was better-than-feared messaging from Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, who had promised a tougher approach to data-center regulation while campaigning.

"I'm not ruling data centers out," Hinojosa said in an interview with CNN on Thursday. "It's not that I hate data centers. We just need to stop what we are doing until we have protections for Texans."

J. Gold Associates analyst Jack Gold told MarketWatch that there was a "big overreaction" in the market to the Democrats sweeping the election - with many seeing it as the "end of the data-center buildouts," which would have a "drastic" effect on chip stocks. He expects politicians in Ohio and New York could also moderate their stances.

"I think that the selloff was just too steep," Gold said, adding that people are taking advantage of buying while prices are low.

Yet a temporary slowdown in the U.S. data-center buildout doesn't necessarily mean lower revenues for AI-exposed companies in the coming quarters, Lior Prosor, managing partner at venture-capital firm Deep33, told MarketWatch.

"Available capacity could simply serve demand elsewhere," Prosor said, noting that demand for computing power is global and that "big cloud companies are building around the world."

"We may be heading into the first earnings season in a long time with more cautious forecasts and expectations," he noted, which means "room for some meaningful beats."

Mark Spindel, a partner at Pilot Wave Holdings, told MarketWatch that while Thursday's market move "compressed a lot of separate concerns into one trade, including AI capex, data-center policy risk, inflation and higher rates," Friday's rebound reflected the market "separating those issues again."

"Chip demand has not disappeared," Spindel said, adding that "near-term volatility" is arising as investors assess the timeline of the AI buildout.

Another bit of good news was the Wall Street Journal's reporting that Anthropic exceeded $80 billion in annual recurring revenue at the end of October. That was above where the metric stood at the end of September, according to the report - although the Journal also noted that some Anthropic investors think the company's targeted IPO valuation needs to come down from $1.5 trillion.

All that said, investors may want to buckle up for a bumpy ride. Lee said it's not wise to make "irrational portfolio decisions" during a "violent tape."

-Hannah Pedone

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11-06-26 1624ET