This pancreatic cancer treatment is on track for 'one of the best drug launches of all time'

By Jaimy Lee

Revolution Medicines' brand-new treatment brought in far higher sales than expected in its first few weeks on the market

Revolution Medicines said its new cancer drug brought in much higher sales than anticipated in the third quarter.

A brand-new treatment for pancreatic cancer may be the best oncology launch of all time.

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) announced Wednesday evening that Rasonque, its pancreatic cancer drug that received approval from the Food and Drug Administration in late August, brought in $198 million in sales in the third quarter, putting it on track for $527 million in sales in the fourth quarter and $3.1 billion in sales next year, according to Jefferies. The FactSet estimate for the third quarter was $24.9 million.

"The combo of breakthrough science + transformative efficacy + high unmet need + strong execution will have us see one of the best drug launches of all time," Jefferies analyst Faisal Khurshid wrote in a note to investors.

Revolution's stock was up about 4% in premarket trading on Thursday but had plunged 8% by mid-afternoon amid a widespread drop in the the Dow DJIA, S&P 500 SPX and the Nasdaq COMP. The State Street SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund XBI fell 6.3%.

Rasonque is a pan-RAS inhibitor. It works by targeting so-called RAS proteins like KRAS or NRAS and then "turning off" the mutated proteins. Amgen's (AMGN) Lumakras and Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Krazati are KRAS inhibitors that are used to treat people with KRAS-mutated lung cancer. RAS-mutated cancers were considered "undruggable" by scientists until the emergence of RAS-inhibiting treatments. Today, those represent an exciting new field of cancer drugs, with Revolution leading the way.

About 5,000 patients received Rasonque in its first five weeks on the market, driven by widespread adoption by doctors and solid reimbursement from health insurers, according to the company. There was also built-up demand from patients in the compassionate program, which provides access to experimental medications outside of clinical trials, and from those who had already been treated with available options.

That raises questions about whether the drug's success in the quarter is repeatable. Those unknowns, coupled with the market being down, are likely weighing on the stock.

"It is hard to model what the run rate is going forward," Khurshid told MarketWatch in an email.

That said, the drug's stellar sales after only a few weeks are notable. It "is completely unprecedented amongst oncology drugs & places it among the fastest launches in industry history," Cody Tranbarger, a biotech researcher who goes by "Professor Oak" on social media and founded a biotech startup now owned by Anthropic, wrote on X.

Rasonque is Revolution's first approved drug in the United States. A decision in Europe is expected by the end of the year. But Revolution's biggest bet is that Rasonque can do more than treat this one kind of metastatic pancreatic cancer. The company is running at least four other Phase 3 clinical trials testing the drug in other cancers, including colorectal and lung cancers.

Merck reportedly showed interest earlier this year in buying the biotech company in a deal that valued Revolution at $30 billion, according to news reports.

Revolution's stock has soared 132% so far this year, while the XBI is up 23%.

-Jaimy Lee

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11-05-26 1432ET