Elon Musk says he can build a wireless carrier in two to three years. Is that possible?

By William Gavin

Verizon says there is 'no magic wand,' but analysts note SpaceX may be targeting some shortcuts

Analysts say SpaceX could accelerate its wireless goals via acquisitions.

Building a wireless network can be time-consuming and expensive. The question now is how much Elon Musk will be able to circumvent industry norms and speed things up.

His dream of turning SpaceX's Starlink unit into a major U.S. wireless carrier is starting to get more credence, even from a major rival. Verizon Communications (VZ) CEO Daniel Schulman told investors on Monday that he would "welcome the opportunity" to eventually compete with SpaceX (SPCX). But Schulman thought he it would be at least four to six years before SpaceX's mobile network could take shape.

Musk countered that he expects to have things in order within two to three years.

Admittedly, Musk has a tendency to miss targets, as seen with Tesla's (TSLA) slow robotaxi growth relative to prior promises. But Wall Street is increasingly wondering what he has in his back pocket. There are various ways SpaceX could accelerate its telecommunications ambitions, from partnering with an established carrier to buying an owner of valuable spectrum.

During an earnings call last week, Musk told SpaceX investors that they were "missing some of the pieces" necessary to understand Starlink Mobile and the company's broader satellite-internet offerings. The company currently offers Starlink Mobile as an add-on with partners across several countries but aims to provide both satellite and ground-based connectivity as a standalone carrier.

Still, SpaceX's recent moves don't appear out of the ordinary, at least so far. The company has signed deals to acquire spectrum licenses from EchoStar (ECHO) and Grain Management, as well as Tristar License Group. SpaceX also was approved to launch 15,000 satellites and is in reported talks to access at least 80,000 cell towers from companies like Crown Castle (CCI).

When speaking on Verizon's earnings call on Monday, CEO Schulman said SpaceX is acting as he predicted and that Verizon knows "exactly what they're going to do."

"If they build a terrestrial network, it will basically look and feel like every other network. There's no magic wand. There's no secret sauce. There's no shortcut. There's no radically lower structural cost advantage," Schulman said.

Bernstein analysts led by Douglas Harned said in a Monday note that SpaceX could spend more than $100 billion over a six-to-eight-year period on spectrum and cell-tower access. The "best path" for SpaceX would be to make a deal with Verizon, T-Mobile (TMUS) or AT&T (T), Harned added.

However, the trio appear resistant to working with SpaceX, perhaps figuring that if any one of them struck a deal, it would upset an industry balance that supports favorable pricing. The major wireless companies have instead banded together to form a joint venture focused on satellite internet, and they've pushed back against a U.S. regulator's proposal that could help SpaceX.

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Schulman said he sees "absolutely no benefit" to extending a mobile virtual network-operator deal to a satellite provider. AT&T's outgoing CFO Pascal Desroches said last month that "there is no need" to use an MVNO to reach customers in "very remote" parts of the U.S. where satellite internet is best suited. Even T-Mobile, which has the closest relationship with SpaceX and is due to report earnings on Wednesday, has ruled out an MVNO relationship.

Were SpaceX to try acquiring a telecom company, it would likely push up Starlink Mobile's time to market by about three to four years, Citi analyst Michael Rollins said in a note. A unified stance, however, would push the SpaceX timeline to likely between 2030 and 2032, and the company could spend up to 10 years attempting to capture 20% of the U.S. market, according to Citi.

Another acquisition could also be in the cards. Tim Farrar, a technology consultant, said in a blog that SpaceX could move to acquire EchoStar in its entirety through a stock-based transaction. That would allow it to buy what's left of the Dish Wireless Network, as well as EchoStar's remaining spectrum, he said.

"The benefit for EchoStar holders and [CEO] Charlie Ergen in particular, would be that a share-based transaction could be tax-free," Farrar wrote, adding that it wouldn't be surprising if a deal was announced as soon as next week.

EchoStar's shares were down almost 2% in recent action on Wednesday.

-William Gavin

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10-28-26 1458ET