Chip bellwether ASML says customers are already asking to place orders - for 2030

By Nora Redmond

The first major semiconductor company to report this earnings season lifts low end of sales guidance

ASML's New York-listed shares rose nearly 2% in premarket trading.

Shares in ASML climbed on Wednesday after the semiconductor heavyweight said it was already getting order interest for 2030, but narrowly missed expectations on revenue.

The Dutch company's stock (ASML) rose almost 2% in premarket trading in New York, and in Amsterdam (NL:ASML), it advanced 3%. The move comes as the world's only maker of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are used to produce microchips, reported revenue in the third quarter of EUR11.66 billion ($13.06 billion), below Wall Street forecasts of EUR11.85 billion, according to the London Stock Exchange Group. It marks a 55% jump compared to the same quarter of last year.

However, traders may have been comforted by ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet's comments that customers are starting to enquire about orders for four years time.

"So a lot of our discussions with our customers now are shifting in fact beyond 2027. A lot of order intake for 2028. But also some strong interest to already place orders for 2029 and sometimes even 2030," said Fouquet, who took over the helm in April 2024.

Fouquet said it's now becoming "very clear" that its planned capacity - it expected 2027 capacity to rise 30% from this year's 65 tools - won't meet customer demand, so it's looking to expand production further.

"While investors may focus on whether 2027 EUV capacity can move closer to 90 tools, we believe the more important takeaway is customer interest in securing capacity for 2029 and even 2030," Pavan Daswani, European tech analyst at Citigroup, wrote in a Wednesday note.

Earnings per share in the three-month period ended September reached EUR12.93, or $14.49, a year-on-year jump of 136%, and higher than consensus of EUR11.01.

ASML also lifted the low end of its full-year guidance, announcing that it now anticipates sales to reach between EUR44 billion and EUR45 billion, up from a prior estimate of between EUR43 billion and EUR45 billion. For gross margin, it said it sees about 56% for 2026, compared to a previous expectation of a range between 54% and 56%.

Technology, media and telecommunications specialists at JPMorgan, led by Scott Silver, wrote that the earnings report looked "somewhat light on information." They said while the raised guidance is encouraging, investors will likely be disappointed by a lack of detail on 2027 outlook and a quantitative update for how it intends to increase capacity in 2028.

A team of analysts at Jefferies, led by Janardan Menon, wrote in note that while the planned capacity expansion was positive news, it was widely expected.

"We continue to expect the multiples of ASML and the sector to cyclically contract further, limiting share price upside," they added.

ASML's Amsterdam-listed shares have advanced 64% since the start of the year, bringing its market capitalization to about EUR602 billion ($673.73 billion), according to FactSet. It means the company remains as Europe's largest by market cap, beating behemoths like LVMH.

Its earnings are closely watched by investors to gauge broader chip demand. They will also be looking to the results of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TW:2330), with clients including Apple and Nvidia, which are scheduled for before the opening bell on Thursday.

TSMC , a key ASML customer, saw its stock edge 0.1% higher in premarket trade. Many other semiconductor stocks including Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) saw muted moves.

-Nora Redmond

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10-14-26 0441ET