AST SpaceMobile's stock is feeling the heat from SpaceX's wireless plans

By Christine Ji

AST's commercial rollout could face delays due to satellite-launch challenges and SpaceX's growing ambitions, an analyst warns

AST SpaceMobile shares have dropped nearly 65% from their May peak as competition heats up.

AST SpaceMobile's plan to build the first space-based cellular broadband network is encountering major hurdles.

Shares fell 8.5% on Tuesday, to about $47, as investors assess how SpaceX (SPCX), once a major partner, has turned into a significant rival.

On Monday, Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter downgraded AST SpaceMobile shares (ASTS) to neutral from overweight, cutting his price target to $54 from $98. Potter cited lower conviction in the pace of AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellite launches and concerns about SpaceX's growing presence in the direct-to-cell market, a technology that lets standard smartphones connect directly to satellites in orbit without specialized equipment.

Last week, SpaceX announced announced a deal to purchase roughly $8 billion worth of mobile wireless spectrum, a sign that the company is getting serious about becoming a major mobile carrier. And as SpaceX allocates satellite-launch services for its own use, a launch bottleneck is gripping the wider industry and could hamper AST SpaceMobile's ability to send satellites into space.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile reached a recent high of over $133 in May of this year as the overall space sector saw a tailwind from SpaceX's public listing. However, shares have shed nearly 65% of their value since.

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Potter now expects AST SpaceMobile to have 18 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, down from his previous estimate of 45. He currently expects 60 by the end of 2027, down from an earlier target of 68. The delayed ramp could mean AST SpaceMobile will miss its target of kicking off commercial U.S. service by early 2027, pushing the rollout into the second half of 2027 instead.

Representatives from AST SpaceMobile did not immediately respond to a MarketWatch request for comment.

Fears that SpaceX could undercut wireless rates and squeeze launch capacity led Potter to trim his assumed monthly price for AST SpaceMobile's service to $12 from $15.

However, Potter pointed to one silver lining for AST SpaceMobile: SpaceX's mobile-carrier ambitions could actually increase demand from traditional wireless carriers for AST's services.

"There's no denying: execution risk seems high, and bearish scenarios imply >50% downside potential," Potter wrote. "But SpaceX is likely making enemies, including well-capitalized [mobile network operators] and sovereign institutions; these entities are incentivized to use ASTS as a weapon to remain competitive."

AST SpaceMobile currently has a partnership with AT&T (T), and Potter believes the company could announce deeper collaborations in the future. With over 20% short interest, AST SpaceMobile bears could be subject to violent short squeezes if the stock rises, Potter said.

-Christine Ji

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10-13-26 1632ET