Quantum stocks are getting hot again after a brutal summer. Can the rally last?

By Hannah Pedone

This week's Quantum World Congress could trigger a 'sentiment reversal' for quantum stocks after a rough summer, an analyst says

Rigetti Computing is one stock that B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis expects could see a boost this week.

Shares of quantum-computing companies have had a tough summer, but an industry conference this week and potential news around technical progress toward quantum milestones could give a boost to the sector, some analysts believe.

Quantum stocks have seen mixed returns in recent months, when shares of a number of industry players soared after the U.S. government announced plans to provide $2 billion in grants and stakes in quantum-computing companies. Expectations around quantum stocks have "reset substantially" this summer, Baptista Research analyst Ishan Majumdar told MarketWatch.

The Defiance Quantum exchange-traded fund QTUM, a proxy for quantum stocks, saw some relief recently, rising 7.6% amid a five-day winning streak ahead of the Quantum World Congress in Maryland this week. But even with that gain, the ETF was still down 8.9% over the past three months, while the S&P 500 index SPX has gained 3.9%.

Shares of IonQ (IONQ) have tumbled 30.9% in the past three months, while Quantinuum's stock (QNT) has dropped 24.9%, Rigetti Computing's (RGTI) has slid 23.5% and D-Wave Quantum's (QBTS) has shed 29% - but all of them have gained over the past week.

Majumdar told MarketWatch that the Quantum World Congress could trigger a "sentiment reversal" if government contracts or big customer wins are announced, or if there is evidence of progress on technical milestones.

He acknowledged, however, that investors may have become more "discriminating" about the industry. "A roadmap announcement alone may not be enough anymore," he said. "[T]he market increasingly wants evidence that technical progress is translating into commercially useful systems and recurring revenue."

Meanwhile, shares of some individual companies could see a nice lift from the conference.

B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis wrote in a note this week that shares of IonQ, D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing, as well as Infleqtion (INFQ), could continue recent gains. He highlighted the U.S. government's expected presence at the conference and said he'll be looking for announcements surrounding further federal support for the industry.

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And there are more reasons to be optimistic about the quantum group. Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake told MarketWatch that the most important potential positive catalysts he's watching for are news around progress on Quantinuum's new fourth-generation quantum computer, called Sol, and IonQ's release of Superion 256, which has 256 qubits - the basic unit of information in quantum computing.

"In my view, those are the two leading contenders to get to commercial advantage first," he said.

IonQ is accepting orders for customer deliveries in 2027, while Quantinuum is expected to launch Sol in 2027.

-Hannah Pedone

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09-22-26 1342ET