Corporate profit forecasts are topping expectations to an unusual degree. AI is a big reason why.

By Bill Peters

The information-technology sector stands out when it comes to issuing upbeat earnings outlooks

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan walks onstage for his keynote presentation at Computex in Taipei on June 2.

Another earnings season is just around the corner, and more companies than usual have had upbeat expectations, while their executives are also a bit less preoccupied with inflation.

So far, 114 S&P 500 companies have put out third-quarter earnings forecasts, according to a report from FactSet published on Friday. Of those companies, 72 have issued earnings-per-share outlooks that topped Wall Street's expectations. That's well above the average of 43 over the past five years.

Most of those companies, the report noted, are from FactSet's information-technology sector, which has benefited from the artificial-intelligence boom that has driven much of the S&P 500's SPX gains in recent years.

"AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute," said Lip-Bu Tan, the CEO of chip maker Intel (INTC) - whose third-quarter profit forecast in July topped analysts' expectations as customers scrambled to get their hands on sufficient computing power.

Within the information-technology sector, Intel, a company more or less left for dead two years ago, is among the biggest contributors to the increase in the sector's estimated third-quarter earnings since June 30, the FactSet report said.

Analysts expect third-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 overall to increase 28.7%, according to the report. That would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 25%.

Those expectations arrive as Wall Street remains on the lookout for signs of weakness among consumers, whose spending has held up even as gas prices have climbed this year amid persistent inflation. However, the FactSet report noted that fewer S&P 500 companies have been talking about inflation in recent months.

An analysis of earnings calls from June 15 through Sept. 10 found that the word "inflation" came up on 205 of those calls; that was down 6% from the previous quarter. It's also far less than in the second quarter of 2022 - the pinnacle of inflation discussion on earnings calls over this past decade, when the topic came up on 410 calls after Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove up costs for energy and basic necessities.

Some of the companies still talking about inflation, however, point to deeper consumer struggles.

"Inflation is still stubbornly high, as well as fuel prices being volatile," Dollar General (DG) CEO Todd Vasos said on the discount retailer's earnings call last month. "And with that, the consumer needs us more every day, and we continue to be there for her."

-Bill Peters

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09-13-26 1000ET