Super Micro gives a big sales forecast, but analysts wonder how long the momentum can last

By Nora Redmond and Britney Nguyen

Analysts say the server maker faces risks around exports and the timing of deals

Super Micro's stock climbed 19% on Wednesday.

Super Micro Computer impressed Wall Street with its profitability trends and revenue projections, but some analysts aren't sure that the momentum is sustainable.

The San Jose, Calif.-based company (SMCI) expects revenue in its current fiscal first quarter to reach between $14.5 billion and $15.5 billion, surpassing the midpoint analyst consensus of $11.8 billion on FactSet. It also forecast a 10.4% to 10.8% gross margin for the period. Super Micro reported a 17.6% adjusted gross margin in its fiscal fourth quarter ended June 30.

"While demand remains strong, we continue to see variability tied to customer timing, mix sensitivity, working capital intensity and customer concentration," Citi analyst Asiya Merchant wrote in a note on Wednesday, while raising her price target on the stock to $39 from $33.

Katherine Murphy and Michael Ng of Goldman Sachs were encouraged by the server maker's customer diversification - with nine $1 billion customers this year, compared to four last year. They also liked Super Micro's focus on expanding its product offerings, and hiked their target price on the stock to $34 from $30.

Still, the Goldman analysts wrote late Tuesday that they remain "cautious" on Super Micro, in part because of intense competition in the data-center-infrastructure market.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said Super Micro's outlook for the September quarter signals that its margin upside will fade, though that will be offset somewhat by strong revenue.

The company's expectation for fiscal 2027 revenue to be in the range of $65 billion to $72 billion implies that Super Micro will continue seeing sales growth throughout the year, he added.

"We see this forecast as plausible, particularly in light of large announced 2027 data-center build aspirations that we believe support [Super Micro's] forecast," Bryson wrote in a Wednesday note to clients.

The Wedbush analyst kept a neutral rating on the stock, given that Super Micro is still investigating shipments of its servers to China that included banned AI chips.

Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold was encouraged that Super Micro's management discussed how new orders reached more than $60 billion in the June quarter. That suggests "customers are largely overlooking the overhang from the export-control indictment/ongoing investigation," he wrote.

However, Leopold said in a Tuesday note to clients that the risks from the case still linger and "will be difficult to quantify."

Super Micro's stock jumped 19% on Wednesday.

-Nora Redmond -Britney Nguyen

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08-12-26 1800ET