How your winning stock-index fund can turn on a dime

By Philip van Doorn

Also in Weekend Reads: The changing bond market, housing-market opportunities and advice from the Moneyist

The iShares Semiconductor Index has fallen 18.2% during July but it is still up 65% for 2026.

So far this year, the iShares Semiconductor exchange-traded fund, which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index of 30 stocks, has risen 73%. But it has declined 19% during July. Even if you have been riding the semiconductor wave with an index fund this year, it hasn't been fun to watch your brokerage account decline so much in less than three weeks.

Among the 30 stocks in the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX, only one, Nvidia (NVDA), was up for July through Friday, with a 1.4% gain.

These 14 were down 20% or more for July, through Friday's close. The list also includes year-to-date price changes, those for 2025, and two columns showing how forward price-to-earnings ratios have changed this year.

 
Company                        July price change  2026 price change  2025 price change  Forward P/E  Forward P/E as of Dec. 31 
Astera Labs                               -37.1%                83%                26%         79.5                       70.5 
Marvell Technology                        -36.7%               122%               -23%         36.7                       24.0 
Teradyne                                  -33.4%                67%                54%         36.8                       36.7 
Intel                                     -31.9%               158%                84%         66.5                       61.2 
Macom Technology Solutions                -29.7%                56%                32%         40.2                       38.4 
KLA                                       -29.5%                75%                93%         40.2                       31.0 
Lam Research                              -27.7%                83%               137%         38.0                       32.1 
Applied Materials                         -26.7%               106%                58%         33.4                       26.0 
Micron Technology                         -26.5%               197%               239%          5.7                        7.9 
Credo Technology                          -25.5%                41%               114%         29.5                       42.6 
Arm Holdings                              -24.6%               144%               -11%        109.9                       51.2 
Rambus                                    -23.6%                10%                74%         29.7                       30.8 
Entegris                                  -22.9%                65%               -15%         32.7                       26.1 
United Microelectronics                   -21.9%               170%                21%         31.1                       23.6 
                                                                                                                  Source: LSEG 

The forward P/E ratios are based on Friday's closing prices and consensus 12-month earnings-per-share estimates among analysts polled by LSEG. Compare those with the weighted forward P/E ratios of 22.8 for SOXX, 20.3 for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and 21.9 for the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF XLK, as calculated by LSEG.

Among the 14 stocks on this list, Micron Technology (MU) has been the strongest performer this year, with the stock price nearly tripling, and it also has the lowest forward P/E of 5.7. That shows that the rolling consensus EPS estimate for Micron has risen more quickly than the share price, since the stock's forward P/E at the end of 2025 was 7.9.

Micron's 2026 performance is in line with a very hot market for makers of memory chips and computer storage memory peripherals. So here are the same numbers for four more competitors in this area of tech, again sorted by July price declines, with Micron included for reference. For SK Hynix (SKHY), whose American depositary receipts were listed on July 10, the table includes the shares listed on the Korea Exchange so that it includes the year-end P/E.

 
Company                July price change  2026 price change  2025 price change  Forward P/E  Forward P/E as of Dec. 31 
Sandisk                           -40.4%               471%                N/A          6.4                       13.6 
SK Hynix                          -30.5%               183%               274%          4.2                        7.0 
Micron Technology                 -26.5%               197%               239%          5.7                        7.9 
Western Digital                   -25.3%               177%               282%         22.6                       19.6 
Seagate Technology                -18.4%               186%               219%         24.7                       20.5 
                                                                                                          Source: LSEG 

Sandisk (SNDK) is still the best performer for 2026 among the S&P 500, despite a decline of 40% for the stock so far in July. The low P/E for the stock, along with those for SK Hynix and Micron, reflect this year's EPS estimate increases, but also the lingering concerns of some investors over the traditional revenue cyclicality in this corner of the tech space.

Related coverage:

-- Semiconductor stocks are on the verge of a bear market. Is the thrill in the chips trade gone?

-- Micron has turned into 'the most important stock in the market.' So is it time to worry?

-- What the launch of SK Hynix leveraged ETFs tells us about the hottest trade on Wall Street

-- Sandisk's stock is plunging, but some analysts are getting even more bullish

Another tech rout this week

Investors were frustrated with IBM's surprise early report of its second-quarter results.

International Business Machines (IBM) surprised investors on Tuesday by announcing its second-quarter results a week ahead of schedule. The stock fell 23% that day, after IBM CEO Arvind Krishna described a revenue "shortfall" related to the launch of the company's z17 mainframe computer, as well as a shift in customers' buying patterns.

In his letter to shareholders included with the earnings release, Krishna wrote: "We did not adapt and move quickly enough, and numerous large deals failed to close on the timelines we expected, driving the majority of our shortfall."

More coverage: IBM's profit means hardware is 'eating everyone's lunch'

Should you give up on SpaceX?

When SpaceX (SPCX) went public on June 12, investors who were able to buy stock at the initial offering price of $135 were probably allotted far fewer shares than they had requested. That means many might have felt compelled to buy more shares early that day, before they shot up as high as $225.64 in intraday trading on June 16, according to data provided by FactSet. On Friday, SpaceX's stock closed at $123.99, which was 8% below the $135 IPO price.

So what now? Mark Hulbert answered that question by looking back at IPOs of other companies whose stocks traded for long periods below their initial prices, including Facebook, which went public in 2012 and was renamed Meta Platforms (META) in 2021.

Coverage of SpaceX and competitors:

-- SpaceX ushered in a 'new era' for investing in space. Why the stock is cratering.

-- EchoStar's stock has fallen alongside SpaceX's - but it may now be worth another look

-- AST SpaceMobile's stock is sinking as the SpaceX rival looks to raise more cash

More from Mark Hulbert:

-- You are missing the bond deal of the decade - and it is guaranteed to beat inflation

-- Small-cap outperformance is persisting - and these 15 quality stocks pay rich dividends

Money managers' mixed minds

Every morning that the market is open, the Need to Know column presents divergent ideas from professional money managers or traders. You can sign up here to have it waiting in your inbox each morning.

Here is some of this week's coverage in the Need to Know column:

-- The Lehman Bros. moment of the AI bubble is coming, says this critic warning of fallout for tech stocks and the entire market

-- As semiconductor stocks slump, one AI-adjacent sector is thriving - and these are the stocks to buy there

-- Why SpaceX and Tesla are 'value' stocks, according to this fund manager

More on markets

The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-year Index had a yield to maturity of 4.56% on July 17, up from 4.16% at the end of 2025.

Joy Wiltermuth looked into how companies' increasing borrowing to fund the development of AI technology can hurt some investors while creating opportunity for income seekers.

Related: End of an era for this long-term bond bull as inflation takes hold and yields trend higher

Joseph Adinolfi described the epic scale of investors' commitment to artificial-intelligence technology and provided a warning for traders based on the S&P 500's volatility.

Overlooked? Industrials could be the next big bottleneck trade. Here are some stocks that could benefit.

Accentuating the positives for home buyers

Builders have been cutting prices for newly constructed homes in many areas of the U.S.

There is no end to the coverage of how difficult it is to afford a home and how challenging the real-estate market has gotten for sellers. But maybe you are among those looking to buy anyway. You might try to scoop up a bargain or avoid certain headaches by purchasing a newly constructed house. Here is coverage from Aarthi Swaminathan that can help home buyers:

-- 10 U.S. metro areas where builders are slashing prices on new homes

-- These are the toughest places in America to sell a home right now

Financial planning - late in the game

Beth Pinsker writes the Fix My Portfolio column. This week she looked into a difficult topic - financial adjustments made by people nearing the end of their lives in order to make things easier for their loved ones.

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07-17-26 1723ET