Record beef imports are flooding the U.S. - so why is your Fourth of July BBQ so expensive?

By Andrew Rechenberg

Beef prices are sizzling and Washington's recipe for high costs - import more meat - only grills your wallet

The classic American hamburger is getting harder for working families to afford.

Make beef affordable again by supporting U.S. ranchers.

This July 4, millions of Americans will fire up their grills and cook plenty of burgers and steaks. But this year's barbecue comes with a bitter taste: The classic American hamburger is getting harder for working families to afford.

Beef prices in the U.S. keep soaring - up 22% from January 2025 as of May. Decades of poor policy in Washington have hollowed out America's cattle industry. And yet, lawmakers keep reaching for the same failed answer - more beef imports.

America keeps importing more and more beef. And yet, prices keep climbing. Consider that America's beef import volume has risen 86% since 2021. At the same time, beef prices have climbed 56%. Even with record imports, Americans are still paying more at the meat counter.

America no longer has enough cattle.

Why hasn't record import volume brought any relief at the register? Because the fundamental problem is one that imports can't solve: America no longer has enough cattle. The U.S. herd has fallen to just 86.2 million head, the lowest level in 75 years. That didn't happen by accident. It's the result of decades of U.S. government policy failures that left America's ranchers exposed to drought, high input costs, weak market access and foreign competition. And all the while, Washington kept treating imports as a substitute for rebuilding domestic supply.

This scarcity is now showing up at the grocery store because the real cost pressure is coming from the livestock. Ranchers are paying more for essentials - feed, hay, water, labor, credit lines and animal-health protection. And all of it lands on a shrinking herd, with almost no cushion left. For example, from June 2024 to May 2026, retail choice beef prices rose 27%. But live-cattle prices rose even faster, climbing 37%. This squeeze starts upstream on the ranch and flows straight through to your hamburger on the grill.

Domestic supply needs to increase to bring down prices. Instead, America's ranches are disappearing.

Demand only adds to the pressure. Even at these prices, Americans keep eating more beef. Annual per capita beef consumption hit 59.3 pounds in 2025, the highest in 15 years. Demand is resilient and imports alone can't fix the problem. Domestic supply needs to increase to bring down prices, but ranchers still lack the market and policy environment to grow the herd. If anything, America's ranches are disappearing.

Since 1997, the United States has lost more than 450,000 cattle ranches. These ranches once supported families, small towns, local stores and restaurants, feed suppliers, truckers, veterinarians, and entire rural communities. As those ranches disappeared, so did the local economies that made America's cattle country strong.

What's left of the U.S. cattle industry is barely staying in business. About 75% of America's beef cow herd is now in drought. And New World Screwworm has forced the U.S. to halt Mexican live-cattle flows. Even worse, the screwworm outbreak has started to spread to the U.S., with 15 confirmed cases. It's a reminder that depending on imported livestock can bring substantial health risks.

Meanwhile, U.S. ranchers must sell into a meat-processing market that has become overly concentrated. Just four major meatpacking firms now control roughly 85% of America's feed-cattle market. That leaves ranchers with fewer buyers, weaker bargaining power and less reliable access to processing capacity - especially as more imported beef competes for space in the same supply chain.

Washington's answer to all of this has been to flood the market with more imported beef. But that's incredibly shortsighted. It's the exact opposite of the one action that could actually start to bring beef prices down: expand the U.S. cattle herd.

America needs policies that favor U.S. cattle and ranchers - instead of treating them as an afterthought.

The U.S. urgently needs a cattle policy worthy of its ranching tradition. That means restoring mandatory country-of-origin labeling so consumers know where their beef actually comes from. America also needs a trade policy that supports its ranchers instead of treating them as an afterthought

Washington should incentivize investment in drought resilience, water systems, animal-health defense and regional processing capacity. Policymakers should also enforce fair competition in the meatpacking industry, so that independent ranchers have real market access and a fair chance to expand. Recent congressional proposals and federal enforcement investigations to address these issues are welcome steps, and they should be the beginning of a broader strategy to rebuild America's cattle supply.

Making beef affordable again will only happen by rebuilding the domestic U.S. ranching base. Hamburgers were once a staple of the July 4 barbecue. Washington needs to act now to ensure next year's Independence Day celebration won't be even harder for working families to afford.

Andrew Rechenberg is a senior economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America.

-Andrew Rechenberg

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07-03-26 1534ET