What have the U.S. and Iran agreed to? This is what markets are focused on.

By Victor Reklaitis

How quickly will the Strait of Hormuz reopen? Will there be tolls? What happens in 60 days?

What actually will be in the text of the deal reached by the U.S. and Iran? In this picture obtained from Iran's ISNA news agency earlier this month, vessels travel along the Strait of Hormuz near the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas.

The U.S. stock market has mostly celebrated news that the Trump administration and Iran have agreed on a framework for a peace deal, with a formal signing ceremony for the "memorandum of understanding" scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.

The text of the framework is expected to be released Friday, though Vice President J.D. Vance said Monday that President Donald Trump could unveil it before then.

As everyone waits for the text, below is a rundown of what the key points are for markets SPX.

Get ready for tricky trading again in 60 days

The memorandum of understanding is setting up a new deadline, as it's extending an existing cease-fire for 60 days while negotiators work on a more lasting deal that could cover Iran's nuclear program. So it's an agreement to work on making a broader agreement by mid-August. "What the 60-day window is actually for is ironing out the thorniest details," Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners, wrote in a note.

Will the Strait of Hormuz actually reopen - and how quickly?

"For markets, the strait is the only thing that matters, because its blockage was most pernicious for the global economy," said Thierry Wizman, a strategist at Macquarie Group. He said traders have been cheering that the framework's key condition is the reopening of the crucial shipping route for oil (CL00) (BRN00) by ending both Iranian threats to vessels and an American naval blockade of Iranian ports. Trump has claimed that the strait will be "completely open" on Friday, but the reopening is actually expected to be a slow process because it takes time to clear mines laid by Iran.

Will Iran impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz?

Washington and Tehran are telling different stories about whether ships going through the waterway will ever have to pay tolls. Vance said Monday that the American expectation is the passageway will be "opened in a toll-free way for the long term." Iran, on the other hand, essentially has said there is "a special introductory offer, no fees for the 60-day period, after which it will charge for 'safety, navigation, environmental and insurance services,' " said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander U.S.

Iran could resume selling oil - and see other financial windfalls

Iranian officials have said they would receive $12 billion in frozen funds on Friday, along with sanctions waivers, with another $12 billion after 60 days, noted Stanley of Santander U.S. "And they continue to call for war reparations of at least $300 billion," he added. Vance said on Monday that a $300 billion reconstruction fund is "the sort of thing they could have access to" but that it would be funded by Persian Gulf nations and contingent on Tehran abiding by tough conditions on nuclear issues. A Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources, said sanctions waivers that allow Iranian oil sales are expected to take effect this week.

Trump has floated going over the framework 'word by word'

The president said on Tuesday that he will "not only release" the text of the memorandum of understanding but "will probably have a press conference and read it to you word by word so that the press covers it accurately." He also said he "will go over the document with the media in a couple of days." It's not clear if that actually will happen, but Trump already has been scheduled to hold a press conference around 9:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday in France after wrapping up Group of Seven meetings there.

Now read: Here's when gas prices will come down if the U.S. deal to end the Iran war pans out

And see: It could take years for oil prices to return to $67 a barrel. Here's why.

-Victor Reklaitis

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-16-26 2223ET

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