Marvell looks poised to finally get a spot in the S&P 500 after explosive stock surge

By Emily Bary

S&P 500 changes are likely to be announced on Friday, and Marvell is now vastly bigger than the next-largest eligible contender

Marvell, led by Matt Murphy, is a leading candidate for S&P 500 inclusion.

As the index committee decides on fresh additions for the S&P 500, Marvell Technology may be too big to ignore.

Marvell (MRVL) was among the largest eligible candidates for entry into the S&P 500 SPX index during the prior two quarterly rebalancing cycles, but the chip company didn't end up getting selected. However, Marvell sits head and shoulders above the next-largest eligible company by market capitalization. It was worth about $264 billion as of Wednesday's close, while Bloom Energy (BE), the No. 2 candidate, was worth roughly $82 billion.

Anticipation is building, with S&P Dow Jones Indices likely to announce some constituent changes on Friday in accordance with its quarterly rebalancing cadence.

Marvell "is widely expected to be the next company included in the S&P 500," Jeffrey Favuzza, who works on the Jefferies trading desk, said in a note to clients on Wednesday. Shares jumped nearly 5% on Thursday, and have more than tripled so far this year.

Don't miss: Marvell's stock goes on a run not seen in a quarter-century as the tech company grows in stature

It's not just that Marvell is currently quite large by market capitalization, but also that the company has consistently been well ahead of the minimum threshold for new additions, noted Melissa Roberts, an analyst with Stephens.

Marvell became eligible for the index late in 2025 after it met the profitability requirement. But when looking back over the past year, the company has had an average market capitalization of about $54 billion, Roberts told MarketWatch.

"Seeing that someone's had a consistently sizable market cap, I think that's important," she added. It distinguishes Marvell from companies that may have seen explosive increases in their market caps over a short span but that might struggle to maintain those levels in a normalized environment.

S&P Dow Jones Indices didn't immediately respond to a MarketWatch request for comment.

The index committee has latitude in picking new members and doesn't strictly choose the most valuable eligible candidates. To be considered, companies must meet thresholds for probability, valuation, float and other factors. Committee members can use discretion when selecting which - if any - companies make the cut. Four companies were swapped in during the March rebalance, for instance, but the committee opted for zero S&P 500 changes when the quarterly opportunity came around last June.

One factor that the committee informally considers is sector balance, according to Roberts. Marvell is an information-technology company, and that sector is underrepresented in the S&P 500 relative to its weighting in the S&P Total Market Index, which houses a wider swath of companies.

That said, Marvell isn't the only sizable IT candidate. There's also Flex (FLEX), an electronics-manufacturing company whose AI-fueled stock surge has led it to be vastly oversized within the S&P MidCap 400 MID. It had a market cap of $59 billion at Wednesday's close, versus $34 billion for Twilio (TWLO), the next-largest constituent.

S&P Dow Jones Indices has been keen recently to migrate components from the midcap index to the S&P 500. Since the indexes are weighted by market cap, migrations prevent large companies from dramatically skewing the performance of indexes meant for smaller companies. Migrations can also minimize disruption for funds that track the various indexes.

There's a recent precedent for the committee to tab two companies in the same sector, as was the case in the March rebalance when optical suppliers Lumentum Holdings (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) both made the cut.

See also: Nvidia's Huang says Marvell could join the trillion-dollar club - and the stock immediately surges

-Emily Bary

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06-04-26 1850ET