Is Microsoft ditching OpenAI for Anthropic?

By Christine Ji

A recent Anthropic partnership could provide a $43 billion revenue opportunity for Microsoft Azure by 2030, according to HSBC

Microsoft committed to investing up to $5 billion in Anthropic last November.

Microsoft's position in the artificial-intelligence race is deeply intertwined with OpenAI, thanks to a $13 billion bet dating back to 2019 that has established the tech giant as OpenAI's primary cloud partner.

But the next leg of Microsoft's (MSFT) AI acceleration may come from rival AI lab Anthropic as the Claude creator sees rapid enterprise adoption, potentially boosting Microsoft Azure revenue by $43 billion annually by 2030, according to HSBC analyst Stephen Bersey.

Last November, Microsoft committed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic in exchange for Anthropic committing to purchase $30 billion of Azure compute capacity. Microsoft invested a portion of that commitment during Anthropic's Series G fundraising in February of this year.

Anthropic has grown revenue at a rapid clip thanks to the explosive popularity of products like Claude Code. According to a Wall Street Journal report last week, the company is on track to more than double its revenue to $10.9 billion in the second quarter. HSBC estimated that Anthropic could reach $241 billion in revenue in 2030, up from the bank's estimate of less than $5 billion in 2025.

Read: Anthropic is now worth $380 billion and sharing new details about how much money it makes

Anthropic accounts for just 5% of Microsoft's remaining performance obligations - future revenue from signed customer contracts - compared with OpenAI's massive 46% share. Yet Bersey argued that this newer partnership "could be a source of major revenue upside" as long as Microsoft successfully locks down a significant portion of Anthropic's expanding compute needs.

Assuming Anthropic's 2030 compute requirements amount to 60% of revenue, it presents a $144 billion revenue opportunity for cloud providers. "If Microsoft Azure garners 30% share in that opportunity (in line with our 2030 market share estimates), this could be a $43 billion per annum opportunity for Microsoft," Bersey wrote, compared with "a minimal amount currently."

This Anthropic revenue opportunity comes as Microsoft and OpenAI amend their relationship to give each party "flexibility to pursue new opportunities." While Microsoft remains OpenAI's primary cloud partner, it no longer has an exclusive IP license to OpenAI models and will no longer pay OpenAI a revenue share.

Read on: Microsoft and OpenAI aren't breaking up. But they're not exclusive anymore.

Microsoft's partnership with Anthropic could boost Azure growth in the coming years, but investors aren't fans of the heavy capital expenditures associated with bringing data centers online to service customers' compute needs.

Last quarter, Microsoft reported 40% Azure growth and forecast an acceleration later in the year. However, the company also raised capital-expenditure estimates for 2026, sparking fears of overspending.

Microsoft's stock has fallen 14% in 2026, making it the worst performer among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants MAGS this year. And it now trades at a historical low valuation of 21.3-times forward earnings, compared with its five-year average of 29.2x, according to Bersey.

But opportunistic spending could help Microsoft seize a generational business opportunity amid the AI boom. "We support the company's aggressive investment strategy and see AI compute demand outpacing supply for several years, positioning the company at the center of a massive AI supercycle," Bersey wrote.

Bersey's price target for Microsoft's stock is $571, representing 39% upside from current levels.

See more: Microsoft just can't win Wall Street's trust. The stock is falling as spending fears linger.

-Christine Ji

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05-27-26 1103ET