Analysts say this restaurant chain has figured out how to feed everyone - GLP-1 users included

By Bill Peters

J.P. Morgan upgraded Cheesecake Factory's stock, as weight-loss drugs and cautious consumers make the restaurant industry more anxious

J.P. Morgan said Cheesecake's lower-calorie options could appeal to GLP-1 users.

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs have generally been seen as bad news for restaurant chains - but maybe not for Cheesecake Factory, thanks in part to its gargantuan menu.

J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note Thursday that GLP-1 use was likely "a tailwind rather than a headwind given Cheesecake's broad menu," which for many years has included steamed protein items and low-calorie options, and whose length has at times run past 20 pages.

They also argued that GLP-1 use was likelier to lead people to cut back on snacking more, as they save their appetites for dining out.

"Our view is that much of the GLP risk is on impulse/snacking occasions and that on-premise dining may expand as people regain full comfort and enjoyment eating out," the analysts wrote.

With all that in mind, J.P. Morgan upgraded Cheesecake Factory's stock (CAKE) to a neutral weighting, from underweight. Shares of Cheesecake Factory were up 2.7% on Thursday.

The company - which also owns the health-focused restaurant chain Flower Child and North Italia - has seen its stock climb 5.2% over the past 12 months, though it remains a bit off last year's highs.

Restaurant chains and food-industry giants have tried to find ways to appeal to users of GLP-1 drugs, which suppress people's appetites. Those companies have rolled out items that carry more protein and fiber - as well as items in smaller portion sizes - in the hopes of attracting GLP-1 users looking for food that can prop up nutrient levels and aid digestion.

Around 12% of U.S. adults reported using a GLP-1 drug like Wegovy for weight loss last year, according to a Gallup poll. However, competition for those consumers has gotten tougher.

As GLP-1 use reshapes dining, restaurants are also dealing with a consumer stretched by higher costs of living. Lower-income consumers have felt the pain of those increases more.

The J.P. Morgan analysts said Thursday that Cheesecake Factory's launch last month of a mobile app - a move they suggested was overdue - would help drive more orders and foot traffic. They noted that management sees benefits from younger consumers visiting malls more often. And they said higher gas prices due to the Iran war hadn't had much of an impact on the chain's consumers, which tend to be wealthier.

During Cheesecake Factory's earnings call late last month, CFO Matthew Clark also said its higher-income customers were an advantage.

"Certainly, if you believe in or subscribe to the K-[shaped] economy component of it, many of our concepts in our portfolio benefit from higher-income cohorts," he said, referring to the concept of an economy where wealthier customers do better while everyone else struggles.

Clark also cited the scope of Cheesecake Factory's menu as a strength.

"I think the flexibility of the menu, particularly at Cheesecake Factory and Flower Child, will benefit us with a tail here with the whole GLP-1 thing," he said. "Like, you can get anything you want to eat."

-Bill Peters

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05-14-26 1334ET