Oil market won't return to normal this year if Iran conflict isn't solved within weeks, Aramco CEO says

By Steve Goldstein

Oil futures for December have gained 47% this year, a sign that traders don't anticipate a quick return to normal

Amin Hassan Nasser, CEO of Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco, says the oil market may not return to normal this year.

The chief executive of the world's biggest oil company on Monday said the energy market won't return to normal this year if the Iran conflict is not solved in just a few weeks.

"If the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it will still take months for the market to rebalance, and if its opening is delayed by a few more weeks, then normalization will last into 2027," Saudi Aramco (SA:2222) CEO Amin Nasser said during an analyst call a day after the company reported first-quarter earnings, according to a transcript from S&P Global.

Repositioning of tankers and a return to normal operations for idled plants were among the factors Nasser cited for the delay.

Demand could recover quickly, however, driven by a need to rebuild strategic reserves and commercial inventories, he noted.

Oil futures (BRN00) were again trading at over $104 per barrel on Monday after the U.S. rejected Iran's response to its peace proposal. Oil futures for December (BRNZ26) are trading around $89, a gain of 47% this year and a sign that traders don't anticipate a quick return to normal.

Aramco has been unique in being able to rely on a pipeline to get some 7 million barrels of oil a day to export markets without going through the Strait of Hormuz.

"In both maintaining it with the highest standard and ramping this up to capacity of 7 million barrels per day, Aramco managed to transform around 80 years' of supply and export operational modes in just eight days," he said.

Aramco has also been able to rely almost entirely on locally sourced materials to address disruptions to output.

He said the company's "lifting costs" - the costs of extracting oil out of the ground - are just $3.50 per barrel, about 50% lower than the average of rival integrated oil companies.

Aramco's first-quarter adjusted net income rose 26% to $33.59 billion.

-Steve Goldstein

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05-11-26 0924ET