Bitcoin's unusual technical action points to a crypto bull market, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Fixes story to reflect that the Blue Owl Technology Finance fund maintained its dividend. By Barbara Kollmeyer

Ethereum will see even stronger gains by year-end, says the noted market strategist

Fundstrat's Tom Lee says cryptocurrencies are now emerging from a bear market.

While stock markets dazzled investors in April, largely neglected cryptocurrencies seem ready to fight for the limelight in May.

Bitcoin pushed past the psychologically significant level of $80,000 this week, with some pointing to progress on a long-stalled crypto bill in the U.S. Congress. The world's No. 1 crypto ended lower on Wednesday after six straight days of gains.

Our call of the day is from the co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, Tom Lee, who sees the start of a budding crypto bull market, citing recent technical action.

Lee noted that, alongside tech, crypto has been an outperformer since the Iran war began, with a 17.5% advance for bitcoin (BTCUSD) and a 15.4% gain for Ethereum (ETHUSD).

At the Milken Conference in Los Angeles this week, the strategist said the message from his meetings with crypto exchanges was that client behavior is changing. "They're starting to go long crypto. The institutional buyers are coming in."

He shared his chart showing three straight winning months for bitcoin, which he called a "sign of bitcoin spring," referring to the start of a recovery phase after a bearish period.

"Bitcoin's never been up three consecutive months in the middle of a bear market, so it actually, in fact, marks the start of a bull market," he said.

According to Dow Jones Market Data, bitcoin has gained for two straight months and is on pace for a third, yet it remains down 35% from an all-time intraday high of $126,272 on Oct. 6, 2025.

Lee also pointed to a Wednesday post on X from Bollinger Capital Management's president and founder, John Bollinger, best known for inventing the Bollinger Bands technical tools. Bollinger said his "trend model for bitcoin turned positive," and his Tactica program is now "fully invested" in it.

Lee is especially bullish on Ethereum, which is down around 52% from an August 2025 all-time intraday high of $4,955.23. Note that Lee is chairman of the Ethereum treasury company BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR).

Ethereum itself is off 21% this year, versus a 6% fall for bitcoin. Based on how Ethereum has performed after bear markets - gaining slowly in the beginning, and then picking up speed - the crypto will probably see even stronger gains by the end of this year, said Lee.

"Magnificent Seven" stocks MAGS, software IGV and Ethereum are Fundstrat's top picks, and Lee says the bottom is in for all three. In late February, Lee predicted that stocks and cryptocurrencies were in the final weeks of pullbacks, setting the stage for a strong March and an even better April.

Lee has made some wrongheaded and bold calls on crypto, such as a forecast that bitcoin could "easily get to $200,000" by the end of 2025 and top $1 million per coin in a few years. His long-run view is that Ethereum will reach $250,000.

Read: Tokenization is coming to Wall Street as J.P. Morgan takes another step toward making Treasurys move like crypto

The markets

U.S. stocks SPX COMP DJIA have opened higher, as losses pick up for oil (CL.1) (BRN00). Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD02Y are falling.

Read: Traders point to suspicious activity in the oil market on Wednesday

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d       1m      YTD     1y 
   S&P 500                                                              7365.12    3.21%    8.59%   7.59%   30.79% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     25,838.94  4.72%    14.15%  11.17%  45.67% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.336      -3.90    5.50    16.40   -4.50 
   Gold                                                                 4745.5     2.36%    -0.94%  9.54%   43.35% 
   Oil                                                                  92.39      -12.35%  -5.70%  60.93%  53.29% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

The buzz

Iran was still reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war.

Weekly jobless claims came in just under expectations at 200,000. Productivity for the first quarter rose 0.8% and unit labor costs rose 2.3%.

McDonald's stock (MCD) is rising after an earnings beat.

Whirlpool (WHR) is sinking on disappointing earnings and a dividend cut.

AppLovin shares (APP) are rising after the AI mobile ad platform posted forecast-beating results.

DoorDash stock (DASH) is soaring as Wall Street ignored mixed results and focused on higher average order values.

Fortinet shares (FTNT) are climbing after a strong outlook and results, as the cybersecurity vendor spoke of more AI threats.

Arm's stock (ARM) is dropping after the U.K. chip designer's forecast-beating results were met with some profit taking.

Two private-credit funds run by Blue Owl Capital reported lower net asset values, and one cut its dividend.

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The chart

Whichever team hoists the winning World Cup trophy this summer will be the recipients of a very valuable prize, thanks to rising gold prices. The chart from Bank of America analysts show that the all-gold trophy's value has increased 3,000% since 1974 to $746,811. An ounce of gold (GC00) was worth over $180 in 1974, but around $4,743 currently.

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

   Ticker  Security name 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   AMD     Advanced Micro Devices 
   GME     GameStop 
   MU      Micron 
   AAPL    Apple 
   TSM     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 
   AMZN    Amazon 
   INTC    Intel 
   MSFT    Microsoft 

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Beyond the headlines

MarketWatch Picks: The No. 1 piece of advice for retiring smartly, from the head of international wealth and private banking at HSBC

-Barbara Kollmeyer

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05-07-26 0934ET