The last time semiconductor stocks rose this far this quickly, the dot-com bubble burst

By Joseph Adinolfi

The rolling 25-day performance for one index of semiconductor stocks has reached its highest level since March 9, 2000 - the day before the dot-com bubble peaked

The rally in semiconductor stocks is red hot.

On Tuesday, the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX was on track to tally its strongest 25-day rolling performance since March 9, 2000. It has risen by more than 50% during this time, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Veterans of the dot-com bubble might remember that date: One day later, the Nasdaq Composite COMP hit its dot-com-era closing high. Over the next three years, the index would shed roughly 80% of its market value. It would take the Nasdaq 15 years to claw back those losses.

Semiconductor stocks have been climbing since this bull market began. Initially, much of the gains for the industry group were driven by one stock: Nvidia (NVDA). But since then, the rally has started to broaden out. Lately, even laggards like Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) have leapt higher.

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Supply bottlenecks for critical components of the artificial-intelligence buildout, like memory chips, have prompted Wall Street analysts to dramatically raise their profit forecasts for firms that design and make semiconductors of all stripes - not just the sophisticated GPUs necessary to train the top AI models. Strong earnings from the first three months of the year have helped to further cement investors' bullish outlook on the space.

Some Wall Street veterans - including Marko Kolanovic, the former top strategist at J.P. Morgan - have warned that the rally in chips names, and AI-linked names more broadly, was already looking dramatically overextended.

Over the past 25 trading sessions, every stock in the SOX index has gained 14% or more. The top three performers - Intel, Credo Technology (CRDO) and Astera Labs (ALAB) - have each gained more than 100%, Dow Jones Market Data showed.

Michael Burry - the investor who earned widespread notoriety after being portrayed in "The Big Short," the book and film about the 2008 financial crisis - said in commentary shared with his Substack subscribers earlier this week that he had bought more put options tied to the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX, which tracks the SOX.

Those contracts are due to expire in January 2027, Burry said.

-Joseph Adinolfi

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05-05-26 1917ET