This narrow shipping lane is how Trump now wants oil tankers to navigate the Strait of Hormuz

By Claudia Assis

U.S. advises ships trapped at the strait to hug Oman's coast

The U.S. has a new proposed route for vessels, including oil tankers, attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. It's a single narrow passageway that hugs the coast of Oman, according to the Defense Department.

Hundreds of ships and their crews, including massive oil tankers, are still stuck on either side of the strait, which Iran declared closed weeks ago. If the U.S. succeeds in shepherding more vessels out of the strait safely, their cargo would find its way to markets, taking off some of the pressure that has led global crude-oil prices (BRN00) (CL00) to rise by more than 50%.

At the moment, the operation, dubbed Project Freedom by the Trump administration, "is operational without yet being functional," said Aarathi Krishnan, CEO of Raksha Intelligence Futures.

The new plan's structural ceiling on transit volume is low, Krishnan said. "You cannot run 135 vessels a day, the prewar baseline, through a narrow guided lane that depends on continuous overhead air defense," she said. Even a fully successful Project Freedom would probably result in a fraction of that throughput, Krishnan added.

Late Tuesday, President Donald Trump said the effort would be paused to give more time to reach an agreement with Iran to end the conflict.

Underscoring that sentiment, German container-shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd (XE:HLAG), one of the companies that have been avoiding the strait, said Monday it will continue to not send ships through the strait, citing the safety of personnel. Hapag-Lloyd said that, while there have been "positive signs," the situation in the strait "remains uncertain, and it is not yet clear whether the announced opening will be sustained."

Hapag-Lloyd did not immediately return a request for further comment.

Project Freedom is not going to succeed in liberating the trapped tankers, said Daniel Sternoff, a fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. "It's just not safe enough for commercial crews to risk it."

Sternoff estimated that there about 150 million barrels of crude and oil products stranded on the vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf, but while that would restore some of the much-needed supply to Asia, it wouldn't solve the problem, he said.

"The strait has to be safe enough for empty ships to sail back in, load crude, and safely sail back out before much of the 12 million barrels per day of shut-in oil production can restart," Sternoff said. "That likely requires a sustainable cease-fire, agreed by both the U.S. and Iran."

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the world's most consequential tug-of-war as the U.S. and Iran vie for dominance of its waters. Tensions rose on Monday, but Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday that a cease-fire is still holding and that the U.S. continues to hope Iran will agree to a peace deal.

Before the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, ships navigating Hormuz adhered to shipping lanes drawn in 1968 and agreed upon by Iran and Oman. That route, called the Traffic Separation Scheme, established one 2-mile-wide lane for entering and one 2-mile-wide lane for leaving the Persian Gulf, plus a 2-mile-wide buffer zone.

Iran in mid-April unilaterally proposed shipping lanes that hugged its own coast, warning against potential mines and other hazards. It reportedly let vessels from friendly nations slip through and assessed tolls on other ships.

The U.S.-proposed route goes through Oman's territorial waters and is located south of the Traffic Separation Scheme.

At its narrowest, the entire strait is about 33.5 miles wide. In peacetime, it bore about a fifth of the world's crude and crude products - 80% of that destined for Asia. About 135 ships a day cleared the strait before the war, but that traffic ground to a near-halt as Iran responded to attacks launched on Feb. 28 by Israel and the U.S., and Hormuz control has since emerged as a key component of Iran's strategy to outlast its wartime foes. Transits in the subsequent weeks crested at 22 in mid-April and are off more than 90% since the war began. More than 300 ships remain struck in the Persian Gulf as a result.

A day of relative calm followed Monday's skirmishes, which included missiles launched toward the United Arab Emirates by Iran and a drone strike at the Fujairah oil terminal in the U.A.E.

The Oman-hugging lane enjoys "U.S.-enhanced security" and is recommended by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, a Royal Navy organization. The UKMTO classifies Hormuz's maritime security-threat level as critical and says it has received 45 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in the area through Tuesday, including 25 attack reports.

-Claudia Assis

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05-05-26 1914ET